Friday, August 14, 2009

The Blind Squirrel

I guess even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while..

Compare today's action (above) with yesterday's (below). Here is my post from yesterday:

Today, the market took a break and found the neckline once again. She briefly breached it but rode it sideways for the remainder of the day.

She took a while to retrace but I kept my eye on the levels for a possible short entry. It looks like she made it through the 50% retracement and may gun it for the 61.8 level come Monday.

Should the market top out at 50 or 61.8%, this would add to the H&S argument because it would help fill in the right shoulder for better symmetry. Let's see what happens there.

Monday will be interesting. What is left out there to drive this market higher?

I still believe this market is tired. Come on, we didn't get this pullback solely on poor Consumer sentiment? I'm no statistician but is a poll of 500 households a big enough sampling?

The question remains, if we continue to pull back on Monday and break through the neckline, would we consider this a Wave 3 of C of Minor B or a Wave 3 of the beginning of Primary Wave 3?

More to come...


  1. i think (and hope) you nailed it. thanks for your work

  2. Cementzak,

    Thanks, check Dan's blog as well for another perspective:

  3. have seen Dan's count... it is possible and it is my alternate, if it plays out we could go a lot higher (1100 or so is in the cards)... but right now, the other markets look weak, for instance EUR/JPY ignored the late rally. EUR/JPY also looked weak on thursday, and it played out. there're will be blood on monday, bull blood or bear blood... maybe it is time for a downside surprise. good luck