Tuesday, September 1, 2009

SPX 9/1 AM Update

-------------UPDATE 1:25 PM PST---------------
It was brought to my attention on Dan's blog that the primary count here would result in a Minor Wave C (thanks PCR, OCO and Jay_J) completing much higher than 1039, which would invalidate the H&S pattern. Doh! How did I miss that!

As I mentioned below, I was beginning to like the alternate counts better anyway. I am partly aligned with the belief that P3 has begun, however, somehow, 980 SPX may provide some support. Maybe there are still some buyers out there?

Anyway, the whole reason for this count was to provide an alternative (i.e. prepare one psychologically) if P3 was not in progress.

I will try to update the chart later with the two alternate counts. Let's just say at this point I'll be watching 980 real closely.

So far so good. Once again call it a count gone lucky in the right direction. I believe there are potentially two counts which are better than this one that achieves the same targets.

The first alternative is that minute [iv] has not completed and will do so sometime today as a flat. Up next would be minute [v] higher, possibly truncated, to complete the right shoulder. The alternate labels are in blue.

The other count is that P3 has begun and we are seeing leading diagonal for minuette (i) (not sure of degree labeling here) off the 1039 top. Minuette (ii) retraces (i) and creates the right shoulder before heading lower in a minuette (iii). The alternate labels are in red.

Two hours left in the trading day. Let's see what happens!


  1. is that ld(1) my ultrabullish count?

    what does that b at the bottom stand for? beartrap?

  2. how can we paint an ultrabullish? another zig zag up? maybe all we have by now is a single zig zag?
    how can we count? come on, youare the only independent head here from than sick ewi count.
    just as a possibility.