Tuesday, January 26, 2010

1/26/10 - SPX EOD UPDATE

There was a lot of commentary in the Circle Community Lounge today (See link above to participate). I was able to participate sporadically. One thing I commented on was how much I did not like the channeling of the structure starting from the 1147 high on 1/19.

The structure I'm referring to was the alternate count I had listed last night. I felt waves 2 and 4 (minuette) did not create a good channel and just did not look right proportionately.

The bounce off the bottom this morning was not convincing. It appeared to be weak and could not get above 1104. The structure appeared to be forming an expanding triangle and if anything moved sideways taking on a bearish flag pattern.

There is still a way to count this alternate, however, I still like the nested 1-2 count. Support is strong at the 1090 area, which in the case of the alternate count, may be where minute [i] ends.

For now, my preferred count is that we are in wave v of minuette (iii) with a target near 1090-1085. I would expect a bounce to complete minuette (iv) and then a final minuette (v) back down towards strong support or possibly challenge the 1072 gap below. So a bottom for minute [i], though somewhat wide, is between 1085-1072.

Something to keep in mind is the possible bear flag pattern, which is considered a continuation pattern. This pattern suggests, if correct, a more bearish move to 1050. Not sure about this, but something to keep in mind.


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