Tuesday, February 9, 2010

2/9/10 - EOD UPDATE



Squiggles



In the pre-market, futures were indicating a large move at the open. That immediately signaled to me that minuette (ii) of [iii] had more to go.

Subsequently I presented the alternative count this morning.

So far, wave (ii) has developed within the expected guidelines. There are a confluence of factors that would drive one to believe that (ii) should move towards 1083 if there is more upside to go.

An example of those factors:

1. A 61.8% retracement from the 1104.73 high to 1044.50 low equals approximately 1082.
2. Wave y of (ii) = w of (ii) at 1083.
3. Within the first couple hours of trading, price may hit the upper descending trendline (blue one) near 1080.

Anything above this would make me question the entire count.

However, I also posted last night why I believed 1072 (actually the 1071.59 pivot) was not to be seen again for a while. See post here.

The bulls and bears battled around this level for the better part of today. The bulls were successful in piercing up through on the fourth attempt. However, the bears were able to pull price back and close it below.

Will this prove to be the correct call? Once again, many are looking for the 1085 target. Will the market once again surprise us all short. It surely did at 1104.73.

So I present a count that has (ii) complete in order to prepare for a surprise. Currently I have micro waves i and ii complete and ii of micro iii either complete or close to completing. If ii of micro iii has a little more upside, 1071.59 or 1072.31 (gap resistance) may provide a backstop.

At this point, there are two things to watch:

1. If (ii) is complete, I am expecting a third wave down tomorrow and a break through the orange trendline. Initial targets will be the open gaps below.

or

2. (ii) has a little more in it and will attempt to ride towards the upper trendline and hit the targets mentioned above.

Either way, a (iii) should be upon us soon. If price breaks above 1085, I will start to question whether we are still in P2 and if 1104.73 is taken out, then most likely P2 was not in.

On a side note, there are 3 open gaps below at 1067.77, 1062.60 and 1060.06 that need to be filled. If my count is correct, perhaps they will be filled with a third wave down.

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