Thursday, March 18, 2010

3/18/10 - SPX EOD

Ok. Here's an update to the SPX trade chart. Technically that short trade is still alive albeit hanging on a thread. Based on the movement of price today, it is most likely a wave 4.

So far the structure counts best as a double zigzag and I have it getting close to completing.

It is still possible that this also may be counted as a wave 1-2, especially if one were to believe the alternate count (in gray) on the second chart but again most likely a 4 since the overall count (in red) may call for it.

As for trading this move. At some point at the open today a short position may have been taken once price hit the 61.8% Fib and bounced off it. However, as the day progressed it appeared more likely that this was shaping up to be a wave 4.

By the end of the day, it appears that exiting the trade may be a safer bet. There may be one more push lower tomorrow but most likely it will be limited. However, if one were to take an aggressive bet that a third wave down may come tomorrow, just remember to honor that stop above at 1169.84 in case it turns out to be a wave 4 and a fifth wave thrust up tomorrow occurs.


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