Sunday, March 21, 2010

3/21/10 - SPX Main View [6:38 PM PST Update]

[6:38 PM PST Update]

Here's one possible way to count the move off 1169.84. Based on futures action thus far (there's a long way to go of course),it appears the market may be gearing up to react towards the health care bill and India's rate hike. The alternate is in gray.

For those who were following along on the trade example, if one held their position over the weekend (a gamble because on Fri I posted a chart in the CiL highlighting a reason for closing out the position) this position should get a little greener tomorrow, potentially.


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This chart should summarize my top three (3) counts for the SPX at the moment. The preferred count is in blue and green. The first alternate count (Bearish) is in gray and the second alternate count (Bullish) is in pink.

The alternate counts show a possible pullback for wave B or (4) back towards the intersecting blue and green trendlines, which also coincides with a 38-62% retracement of the thrust from 1044.50 and last weeks high. The structure may form a flat or triangle. The 62% retracement lines up almost perfectly with the blue and green trendline intersection.

I thought I would have time over the weekend to examine the counts in a little more detail but that has proven to be a challenge. The smaller scale head and shoulders target is very close to being met so it is possible that leg up from 1044.50 is complete. If I find the time, I'll try to post some charts later on tonight to determine if we have topped for the moment.

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