Thursday, March 25, 2010

3/25/10 - SPX EOD [10:16PM PST Update]

 [10:16PM PST Update]

 A minor wave B in progress would fit with the completion of the Trannies and da RUT.

 Are the trannies done???

What about the RUT?
[9:39PM PST Update]

The chart above highlights two channels, one in green and the other in red. The channels are derived from the end points of minutes [i] and [iii] and drawing a parallel line and connecting it to the end of minute [ii]. I have two different channels here because it is my belief that today's high of 1180.68 may have only been the completion of minute [iii].

The preferred view at the moment is that minute [iii] topped at 1169.84 where I originally had it labeled and where the original green channel line was drawn.

This is somewhat relevant because EW channels help forecast where wave 4 may complete. Often times it will fall on the lower channel line that is parallel to the one drawn by connecting the end points of waves 1 and 3.

Though difficult to see on the chart above, the approximate wave [iv] target for the green channel is 1155 and 1150 for the red channel. Naturally, the long [iv] takes to develop, the targets for the channel rise since the channel line is rising higher thru time.
[3:53PM PST Update]

I forgot to mention that the top today may have only completed minute [iii] or Minor A as labeled in gray as alternatives.

Oh and that smaller head and shoulders (green) target was met by the way. I have a stinkin suspicion they may be gunning for that larger (purple) one now.


Still not much going on. There are a few scenarios going on here based on my count. The first is that minute [iv] is still working out an expanded flat, which is the preferred at the moment. (c) of [iv] may target the 1.618 blue Fib line.

The alternate view is that [iv] may be forming a triangle. The path and labels are in gray. Until price breaks 1152.88, this formation will remain valid.

As the top chart shows, [iv] may target the lower channel line if the expanded flat plays out. Keep in mind a potential head and shoulders may be in the works. The head is at 1180.68 and the left shoulder is at the a of (b). The H&S target would also target the lower channel.

Stay tuned....


  1. Hey Grand-- scw here-- Not sure if you looked at it, but I think both waves down from the peak count cleanly as impulsive on the DJIA-- since I pointed out that they looked corrective on the S&P, I just wanted to bring it to your attention in case you had not looked at the Dow again. I don't think it changes your counts above.

  2. Hey SCW. Thanks for the heads up. I did see the DOW. We'll have to see if certain levels are breached to confirm a trend change. Still looking for that minute [iv]...GL and thanks for reading!