Thursday, March 18, 2010


I'll be honest, I haven't really given this super long term count much thought but something about cycle wave C stands out to me; at least the way I have it labeled.

SuperCycle IV in this case is a regular flat. It looks pretty good. Cycle wave B exceeds cycle wave A by just a tad and then cycle wave C exceeds A by just a tad as well. In this case cycle wave C is approximately 115% as long as A.

EWP guidelines states that wave C is usually between 100 and 165 percent as long as A.

The long term MACD is sporting a bullish cross. Look what happened the last time that occurred, new highs at cycle wave B. The histograms are not sporting any negative divergences as well.

I am by all means bearish on the economy but realize there may be a third bubble in the works that I will call the treasury bubble. The dot com and sub-prime bubble preceded this one. Maybe we borrow some more time for one final hurrah to a triple top?

I know this count doesn't have supercycle iv retracing back towards the previous wave 4 of lessor degree but that isn't a rule anyway.

Just some bull fodder to chew on. Besides, maybe if we start providing bullish blogs, the market may just do the right thing :) (I'm finally catching on Binve!)

Feedback is always welcomed!


  1. Interesting idea. However, the rally between the lows from .com bust and the sub prime peak had some fundamental basis. Jobs were added, consumer spending increased etc. This time around we are not experiencing anything similar to that. We have had a strong rally with little fundamental improvements. Unless you can convince me that we can climb to 1550 purely on technicals, I just do not see it. Additionally, the market has priced in a perfection for a recovery with no down side surprises.

  2. Kevin,

    thx for the feedback. no disagreement with you there at all, esp, "Additionally, the market has priced in a perfection for a recovery with no down side surprises".