Tuesday, July 13, 2010

SPX AM UPDATE [10:45 AM UPDATE: EUR/USD]

 [10:45 AM UPDATE: EUR/USD]
 1.27. I like it when a count comes together.

Now notice the new inverted head and shoulders that may be developing. Gonna keep an eye on this one as well. 







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[10 AM UPDATE]

 SPX 15 MIN

Here's an update to this count. 









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I don't put up bullish counts just for fun. Gotta keep options in mind if your going to use Elliott Wave. In recent days and weeks, I have posted charts outside of Elliott Wave that should give an uber bear some pause though throughout the blogosphere, the sentiment remains very bearish other than a few bloggers, at least the ones that I'm aware of.

 Here's that channel again that I'm watching. We are over the 25% channel. If the market shot straight up to the 50% channel today, that would target 1140.

Obviously that will not happen but if the market continues to trade up in this new range between the 25 and 50% channel, we could expect a minimum of 1140 and higher.



This is the other channel based on Kazooms recommendation the other day. It's fairly the same situation, Above the 25% channel as well.

SPX DAILY BULL COUNT

Here is my old daily bull count. Haven't posted this one in a while. I made a minor adjustment and placed Minor B at the July low to reflect the alternate view on my 60 min bull count.

All along I have talked about a death cross and switching to a very bearish view if that were to happen. Of course what I wanted to see was a good impulse (5 wave structure) down along with the death cross. Though there are a few ways to count it is such since the April highs, it still remains suspect.

The bounce off 1010 is now working it's way back to challenge the 50 and 200 day MAs so we will have to see what occurs.

SPX 60 MIN BULL COUNT

Here's the latest on my bull count. A few days ago I said to watch out for the alternate count (in gray). It is still an alternate, though it is very close to becoming the preferred.

The alternate implies that Minor B was put in on 7/1 and we are now working on minuette (i) of Minor C up to new highs.

As labeled on the chart above, I'm watching that pink descending trendline. 

SPX 15 MIN BULL COUNT

 This chart is a 15 min to support the count above.







SPX DAILY MAs

Ultimately watching how the 50 day MA treats the market. We are certainly headed for it. This corresponds with the pink descending trendline above.




SPX WEEKLY BULL COUNT

I have posted this one a few times in the past and you can also view a variant of this count on my current alternate count page (see the sidebar to the right).

This should provide a view of my larger count and what I expect for a new high, if one were to be put in.

 Getting close to breaking out. This is a crucial test.









The way I approach EW is that "it is until it isn't". So unless this count to the left violates a rule, it is still very possible.

Now having posted all the above, the bear count that I have been following is still valid as well though it is losing credibility quickly. I'll update this count at EOD.

So if your trading, stay nimble and ride the waves of both the bull and bear counts. Short term both imply the same things. 

If your investing it may be better to stay flat. All I say for the investor though is don't get too caught up in the P3 hype, not yet at least. 

GL!
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