Thursday, July 15, 2010

SPX - AM UPDATE [BEAR UPDATE]

[BEAR UPDATE]

This is for you Chucker. (ii) may be complete or very close. The MACD histos are starting to show a possible push up from here though so we'll see. I can't imagine the 200 day is not going to attract price there. I have it currently at 1112.27.











[10:48 AM UPDATE]

SPX E-MINI


So far it's a pretty clear channel and wave 4 looks like a nice zigzag. If the e-mini clarifies anything, than my minuette (iv) alternate on the 15 min chart below may be good to go and we are in a minuette (v) up. 








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[9:50 AM UPDATE]

SPX 15 MIN

Looks like micro [B] is in place. Looking for [C] down to complete subminuette y and minuette (iv).






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[9 AM UPDATE]

SPX LONG TERM INVERTED HEAD AND SHOULDER?

Hmmm....I know there is a larger bearish head and shoulders playing out but this one may come first. Of course the shorter term one is also playing out but is in danger of failing, depending upon where you draw that neckline.

Oh ya, on the 15 min below, there is also a gap at 1080-1078, which so far has acted as support.




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SPX 15 MIN 

Some adjustments were made here that makes a little more sense. As posted last night, I was expecting a pullback to complete minuette (iv) or the alternative wave 2 or b.

So far we have that pullback. The adjustment here is that minuette (iv) may target the 1070-1080 range, which is the area of the previous fourth wave and a tendency of wave 4s. This also fits with a 38% retracement of wave 3, which is also typical of wave 4s. This area also lines up with the 20 day SMA and mid band of the daily Bollinger as well.

But also note where I have the gray (iv) placed. This could very well be the completion of (iv) coming up in a simple a-b-c- zigzag right around 1080.

Based on this count, I am looking for a final subminuette y of (iv) of which I show micro [A] completing right around now. A brief rally for micro [B] before a final drop for micro [C] to complete (iv) in the range I have placed (represented by the green horizontal lines).

A retrace sharper than 38% and I'll lean more towards the alternate that this may be a wave 2 or B pullback. 

As usual, let's see what happens.
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