Monday, July 26, 2010

SPX - EOD - 7/24/10

Looks like the bulls were able to recapture the 200 day SMA. Though the bearish counts are still valid, my gut tells me something else is brewing besides a P3 down. It may not be ultra bullish either but most likely no end of the world scenario.

Things I'm keying on at the moment:

Bulls:
1. A close back over the 200 SMA
2. The 13 and 34 EMAs back above the 50 SMA
3. A potential inverted head and shoulders in the works.
4. Weekly MACD Histograms turning up along with it's signal line.
5. A possible pattern repeating similar to Mar 2009 and Feb 2010

Bear:
1. Volume is still lacking on the rallies (But does it really matter? Since early July the market has moved 10%. Volume or no volume, the market is higher by 10%).
2. Bear counts still are valid


SPX 15 MIN

Looks like minuette (iii) is in the works here.
SPX 60 MIN - BULL

This represents the larger view of the 15 min chart above.
SPX DAILY MAs

A close above the 200 SMA. The 13 EMA over the 34 EMA and both over the 50 SMA.

Any pullback may find support down at these levels near 1085?
SPX DAILY- RECURRING INVERTED H/S?

Three similar looking inverted head and shoulders patterns. The first in March 2009, the second in Feb 2010 and now the third in the works.
SPX DAILY - CHANNEL

The market has remained in the channel and recaptured the 25% channel. The 50% is in blue above and targets a minimum of 1150.






SPX WEEKLY - MACD HISTOGRAMS

The signal line on the weekly is turning up and the histograms sloping positive. This may correspond with a spike to new highs.




TRANS- BULL FLAG?

I posted this one a while back. The same for the RUT below.







RUT- BULL FLAG?
SPX 60 MIN- BEAR

I'm not loving this count as much but it is still valid. The other option is the leading diagonal down to 1010 and the rally up is a wave 2 towards 1150-1170.
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