Friday, July 16, 2010

SPX EOD - HANGING MAN CONFIRMED

Having fun with the whipsaws? Since May we have traded in a range between 1100-1040. That was some bearish action today but did the sell off provide any further clarification to direction? There is still an argument for both sides as highlighted by the charts below.

SPX 15 MIN

This is my preferred count on the 15 min. I knew my call from yesterday and updated again this AM was most likely the case, at least that is how I see it.

I was expecting minuette (iv) to retrace minuette (iii) by approximately 38% and target the previous wave iv of (iii). By the end of today, we got that. Notice the structure does not looks so impulsive near the end of the sell off today. I'll see if I get some time over the weekend to count the squiggles. So for now, I still like this count.
SPX 60 MIN BEAR

Yesterday I said this count was losing momentum quickly and a wave (iii) down had to begin. Well, today's sell off was sort of an answer.

The only problem is the structure itself as highlighted on the 15 min. It doesn't quite look impulsive but it doesn't mean it still can't develop into one.

We'll have to keep an eye on it next week. The two charts below, however, favor the bear side of things though.

SPX DAILY MAs

Yesterday we closed with a hanging man that required confirmation. I would say today qualifies as a confirmation.

We also lost the 50 day MA again. That is three tests now so watch out.

I don't have it labeled on this chart but keep an eye on a potential inverted head and shoulders here. This works with the 15 min count once it completes it's impulse up, which should be followed with a minute [ii] pull back to form the right shoulder.

SPX BOLLINGER

We also lost the mid band or 20 MA. Are we headed back to 1010 where the lower band resides? Hmmmm....


SPX 60 MIN BULL

This currently tracks the 15 min chart above.







SPX DAILY CHANNEL

It broke below the 25% channel.








But need to watch a potential inverted head and shoulders in the works.

With OPEX behind us let's see what next week has in store.

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