Monday, September 20, 2010

9/20/10 - EOD - RECAP OF MY BEAR AND BULL COUNTS

3 MIN
Here's a count on the 3 min chart. We may have seen the end of minuette (i). See here for the daily chart.

I apologize for the earlier snafu with the links for the charts. They are functioning correctly now.

DAILY PREFERRED
Here's an update of my daily preferred chart. I show us close to completing minuette (i) of minute [iii] of C. If this proves to be correct, a pullback for minuette (ii) should be up next. Given the typical Fib retrace levels of 50 - 62%, (ii) can easily retrace back to 1092-1080 and back test that red channel that it broke out of.

A (iii) of [iii] up would be follow that (ii) pullback and further confirm the bullish weekly MACD cross.
DIAMOND BOTTOM
One chart that has kept me on the bullish side of the house.

CHANNEL
Another chart that has kept me on the bullish side. The market is clearly over the quarter channel and is headed for the mid-channel. The minimum level for a kiss of the mid channel now is approximately 1180.


FIBONACCI FAN
If these fans mean anything. I have watched this one for quite sometime now and never really posted an update on it. The minimum level for the overhead fan resistance is approximately 1225.

The following charts below are various bear counts that I also watch. Some imply intermediate term bullishness before any bear returns.

OPT 3
This option has us wrapping up wave C of Y. C=A=1158, which we are very close. However, keep in mind that C may also equal 1.618*A=1231 and 2.168* at 1350.

OPT 6
This option has us working a wave (B) which may end at 1158 with a possibility of a flat forming. If that were the case, (B) would have to retrace back near the start of (A) and once again we get 1220.

If this turns out to be a flat for 2 or B, wave (C) most likely will only retest the 1010 low before bouncing back higher.

Should the market pullback and take out the 1010 low, this corrective structure would be considered a zigzag and (C) may target the 950s or so. We'll address that when the time comes.


LONG TERM BEAR
This option has us targeting 1350. That assumes (C) = .618*(A).


EXPANDING (Z)
This would be the most bearish count of all since it has this entire bear market rally correction ending just about now with a truncated 5th of (Z). But, should the market move with this count and touch the top expanding trendline, guess what area that fall under?
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