Tuesday, September 28, 2010

9/28/10 10:05 AM Update

10:05 AM Update
10:05 AM - Daily Preferred

We still must keep an
eye on the daily. The histos suggest the turn is around the corner.

9:55 AM Update

I'm sensing a possible ascending triangle or ending diagonal again starting from 9/23.

8:48 AM Update
8:38 AM - 60 Min

I'm still keeping an eye on the top of that green channel and also still leaving room for the possibility that (i) completed.

8:34 AM Update

8:34 AM - 60 Min

Here's another way to count this. We are still in v. This am's pullback was [2]. Keep an eye on that green channel though. We are at the top of it right now.

Notice the 60 min MACD histos? They are starting to turn positive.

8:05 AM Update

8:05 AM - 5 MIN

Here's the problem. I show five down and currently five up? The larger five down can't be complete if that was the start of a correction. One would expect a three up and then another five down.

However, if today's low was part of a wave C, then that would be it. The bounce off the lows this am clearly counts as five waves up. That may only be part of wave a up and now we are seeing a b wave correction down with a final c wave up to 62% at 1143 as seen below?

7:50 AM Update

7:50 AM - 60 Min

What a nice bounce. 1131 most likely will hold as new support. Look at the hammer candle closing right on that lower trendline of the ascending channel.

The 15 min MACD is looking to reverse higher. I'm taking my scalp off on this next little pullback off the bounce this am.

7:08 AM Update
7:08 AM - 60 MIN

Well, what do you know. My short scalp is profiting nicely!

Looks like the triple negative divergence is following through. I zoomed into last night's 10:00 PM chart and added the Fib extension of alt c.

The Fibs are in red. c=a = 1124 and c=1.618*a=1107. So if this is just a correction again of some wave 4, I would expect 1123-1124 to be tested. Of course there is a confluence at 1107 as this is also the 38.2% retracement of the rally since 8/27.

I'll try to get a 5min count out because as we approach 1131 (new support) we need to see what the structure looks like. Everything under 15 mins is looking a quite oversold.
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