Thursday, October 21, 2010

10/21/10 EOD Update - 9:50 PM

EOD Update - 9:50 PM

SPX - Triangle 15 Min


I just wanted to show you the results of the 9:45 AM chart below. The drop today was a nearly perfect 62% retracement of B.

It should be noted that C may still be in progress. Above, I have today's drop as a possible subwave a of C and the bounce working on b of C. If b retraces a 62%, we'll see 1182 and then a turn lower towards 1171and may drop a little further and if anything move sideways to form a complex wave as is typical in triangles.


EOD Update


So far so good. No surprises here today. Both counts are still in tact.

We temporarily broke out of the range today as it is drawn above (in all reality, 1190 most likely is the top of the range). I have the triangle working it's subwaves or wave 5 up working on it's subwaves.
I have to use the chart above for now since I don't have access to StrategyDesk at the moment.

Please refer to the 60 min and EW Oscillator chart below in this thread for the larger view.
Yesterday and earlier this morning at 6:44 AM, I posted the expected target for wave (B) of the triangle. We hit that target at 1189.43 and turned lower. I'll post the results of that StrategyDesk chart later.

Working on the idea that this was a triangle subwave or a wave 2 retrace, a 62% retracement was expected down to 1170. We got that to and then bounced and here we are at the end of the day.
If the triangle is playing out, we should see wave (D) up (assuming (C) is complete.

I do have some suspicions it may still be playing out) but shouldn't make a new high before turning lower once more to form wave (E). If the triangle remains in tact, the market should not break below wave (A) or (4) as it is labeled on the top chart. If it does, we must assume an expanded flat is working out of the top for minute [iii] is in at 1189.43.
The bullish count has us preparing for a possible wave 3 of (iii) going into another POMO day tomorrow.

SPX - Alternate

I watch a lot of counts but usually only post my top 3. This is yet one other count I've been keeping an eye on as well. I just wanted to put this out there to keep in mind.

We are very close to a Golden Cross. Again, I won't hold much weight to this since we saw nothing from the Death Cross, however, this is just something else to factor in.
Ok. Gotta run for now and I hope to post more charts later.


12:25 PM Update

There we go. Bounce at 1171. Both triangle and bull counts are still valid.

Enjoying the ride??

10:55 AM Update

I see a head and shoulders break targeting 1170. So far it looks encouraging for the bears but it is yet again only a three wave structure.

1170 will result in a 62% retracement of the 1159 low to today's high. A bounce here would lend strength to the triangle count.

I have to run for the rest of the trading day. I hope to be back before the close. GL!

10:05 AM Update


Keep in mind what I posted yesterday below the 60 min chart, "What has me a concerned about this count is the pink trendline which I continue to watch. Once again the market has gyrated around this line and has mainly stayed above. If it continues to respect this line, the EW Oscillator count below should provide another perspective, which is very bullish."

We have bounced off it again so far with this pull back and this pullback may still be a wave 2 down to be followed by a 3 up.

SPX EW Oscillator

9:45 AM Update

SPX - 15 Min Triangle Option

I'm sure the bears are all excited right now. That's fine. It's a good TRADE, not a crash.

The market must prove that this is not a triangle or expanded flat.

Here are some projections for leg C of the triangle.

For the bullish count to remain valid, 1159.71 must hold.

8:41 AM Update
SPX - 5 Min

And a bigger picture. Wave 1 of 5 completed. In wave 2 of 5 up now.

The alternate is that (B) topped for the triangle option. A 50-62% retracement would be expected if we are in wave (C) down now. (C) should look like 5-3-5 : a-b-c.


8:32AM Update

SPX - 5 Min

The squiggles are hard to read but with the 4-1 overlap in the previous count, we know that that count was not right.

This option here above may apply. Again, applying EW rules, I will know if this is wrong if 1177 is breached.



8:08AM Update



Keep in mind we broke out of the range so look for previous resistance to act as support and continue to watch the bullish count below (EW Oscillator count).

7:51 AM Update

7:51 AM - Triangle Option

Here's an update to this option. All others below still apply. Looking at 1184.96. If this breaks below, than (B) is most likely complete.

I doubt it will break before going a little higher because I think this wave may only be wave 3. 1 min chart below.



6:44 AM Update

SPX - 15 Min Triangle Option

Here's a look at how a triangle would play out if we are in a larger wave 4 triangle off the 1185.53 high.

Pre Market Update

/ES

Here's a look at /ES futures. Looks like a little impulse up for wave 5 or wave i of 5. I was watching the falling wedge last night, which is typical of a wave 5.

However, that falling wedge could be a wave b of a zigzag up wave (B), which would match with my 60 min chart at the bottom.

A new high today in the cash market does not eliminate either counts below. However, the bottom chart's count will become less likely if wave (B) extends beyond 1.62% of (A).

SPX - EW Oscillator

I move this one to the top mainly because I want to highlight the alternate labels on the chart that coincide with /ES.

SPX - 60 Min
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