Tuesday, October 26, 2010

10/26/10 EOD Update: SPX, /DX and EUR/USD - [5:00 PM Update]

[5:00 PM Update]

SPX - Triangle Option

Let's not forget about this option that I posted on Saturday as well. We could be working on a triangle or just a wave (iv) flat. The flat option just completes this patter at [C].

Either way, we may be in for some chop for the next several days or wave [5] takes us higher in the option below.

EOD Update

SPX - 60 MIN

I'm sorry I wasn't around much today but I'm glad I wasn't around to watch this day. If we are truly working on subwave [5] of the ED, a three wave structure is to be expected.

We may have seen waves a and b play out today and the beginnings of c. If is this correct, wave c should take us higher.

The 5 min chart below shows some potential targets for c based on an extension to a. The chart above shows what the maximum length wave [5] may be if it is to remain shorter than [3] and stay within the rules of an ED.


SPX Alternate

This would be an alternate view with a second alternate wave (iv) flat. In this scenario, wave (iii) topped at 1184.38.


Here is something to consider for a call to a top of this leg up. This past Saturday, I presented the CCI chart and speculated that we may be seeing a repeat of April just based on the behavior of CCI.

At the time, I was looking for a third touch of the trendline and wanted to see what the market would do. We briefly broke above it yesterday only see it fail today and dip below 100.

As you can see in the chart, back in April, after CCI made a third hit of the descending trendline and break below 100, we sold off down to 1010.91.

If this is signaling the sell off, I'm still watching 1171.17 and 1159.71 to confirm by price.

However, when you look at the dollar, it appears to be working on a wave 4 triangle of a wave 3 or C down. If wave d of the dollar begins in earnest tomorrow, we may see our wave c of [5] up on the SPX.

The EUR/USD looks like it may be in a wave 4 triangle as well before heading higher for one last wave 5.
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