Friday, November 12, 2010

11/12/10 - EOD UPDATE #2

SPX - 30 Min

Ok. Just re-posting this chart with a possible target area for minute [b] or minuette (a) of [b].

EW guidelines states that wave 4 is usually a flat, triangle or flat combination. This makes me think we could see a much higher bounce next week than many are expecting. But then again the market has done completely the opposite of what I have been thinking :)

One option I like is that this Minor 4 completes a flat combination. It would make sense to move sideways and to alternate with Minor 2.


Minor 4 IDEALIZED STRUCTURE

Based on this chart, the primary idea would be that Minor 4 completes a large flat but based on the sized of minute [a] the way I have it labeled, it may require more time.

So I present an idealized structure for a flat combination that ends with a zigzag. That last zigzag minute [y] would also push Minor 4 all the way to the terminus of minute [iv] of Minor 3.

Minor 4 in this case would alternate with Minor 2 perfectly.

All this of course is getting way ahead. So we'll just have to see how it all plays out.



200 Week SMA

200 Week SMA

Last week we closed above the 200 week SMA. I mentioned then that we would need to see it close above for a few more to maintain a much longer term bullish bias.

So far today, we pulled back towards it and closed right above it. It currently sits at 1192.15.


Bear Option

Let's not forget the bear option. I don't think it is occurring right now though because I don't think the waves are too impulsive at the moment. But if it is, this is the option I'm watching.

Other things to consider is the fact that we closed below the longer term ascending channel and kissed the underside on a backtest.

The daily MACD also crossed down today. We'll have to see how strong that momentum is because back in April the daily signal was crossed up and down three times even though the market marched higher.
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