Tuesday, November 2, 2010

11/2/10- 12:36 PM Update

12:36 PM Update

Some adjustments. Looks like (y) =.618*(w) at 1192 and (y)=(w) at 1191.

11:57 AM Update


SPX - 3 Min

I do see this pullback as a corrective move so far. I'm thinking (y) hits 1188.

11:45 AM Update


SPX - 15 Min

We have a sell signal on the 15 min. Let's see what happens. A 23.6% retracement is 1191ish.

11:24 AM Update

On a more bullish note, it is possible a nested 1-2 is in the works. The 3 min chart above shows the 1-2 in black and 1-2 in red. 1189.78 must hold for this option to play out.

11:18 AM Update

SPX - 15 Min

The 15 is starting to turn down. I'd like to see the market find support on or near that black ascending trendline of the Fib levels pointed out earlier before re-entering long.

11:15 AM Update

Triple negative divergence on 15 min MACD.

11:09 AM Update

SPX - 15 Min

That was close. It this leg up is complete, I'm looking for a retrace into the 1184-1188 range to complete [E] or it can be wave 2 of this final fifth up.

10:55 AM Update

We may blow through. Hang on.

10:34 AM Update

SPX - 15 Min

Here is how this would count as a three wave structure up. Notice the histograms are sloping down?

10:28 AM Update
SPX - 15 Min

On this chart, I stated earlier that I wanted to see the MACD trendline break above. It's hard to see it but I think she is turning back down. As I posted minutes before, the 10 min MACD is turning down.

The wave structure up right now only looks like a three wave corrective mess and since we are close to MACD trendline resistance, I'm thinking we may be turning back down.


10:24 AM Update

Had to step away for a meeting. Looks like this is another corrective wave up so far, at least everything from about 10:30 EST.

The complex [D] or [C] alternative is certainly on the table and let us not forget about the ED scenario (even though it has it's problems).

I'll try to get some charts up soon. The 10 min MACD looks like a sell signal is in store.

8:00 AM Update

SPX - 30 Min

Here's a 30 min view with candles. I like the hammer developing there if that is the end of subminuette ii.

Notice I have now added an alternate label for [D]. Keep in mind that waves C and D in a triangle may be complex and it is possible one of the two has played out.

I'm guessing here because I would have liked to seen a thrust above 1196. We may still be setting up for that but until we get it, we have to be mindful of these possible alternatives.


7:40 AM Update

SPX - 3 Min

This may be a better revised count. The top squiggles are so hard to decipher. Gotta watch the Fib retrace levels.

Keep my alternate option in mind as well.
7:18 AM Update
SPX - 3 Min

Here's my take on this structure this AM.



Pre Market
SPX - 15 Min

Here's an update to this chart that I posted over the weekend. When the market broke above the MACD trendline resistance and then back down, that gave me confidence in knowing we were only forming wave [D].

I will be watching the same thing again. I'd like the market to stay above this and above 1196.14 to confirm that we have broken out of the triangle. If we breach this line only to fall back below, then my alternate option for this triangle is most likely in effect.

/ES

This looks familiar doesn't it? From a trading standing point, this may present another nice scalping opportunity if my alternate count is in play (wave [C] bottoming yesterday).

Futures has broken out of the old converging triangle trendlines again and is approaching the barrier (ascending) triangle's horizontal resistance line.

Yesterday I proposed, as an alternate, that wave [C] may have completed. If the market cannot clear the horizontal resistance line, that count may become valid.

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD relationship to equities continues. It appears it has also broken out of it's triangle and heading for the top of it's wave b.

/DX

The dollar continues to carry an inverse relationship to equities and has fallen further out of it's triangle, which may not have been a triangle at all but a flat.
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