Wednesday, December 29, 2010

12/29/10 -9:30 PM Update

9:30 PM Update
Cup and Handle

Sometimes I think I have too many charts because I just never get around to viewing them all. Jim in comments tonight provided a link to his count and got me to look at the overall count again.

So I post this cup and handle chart once again. If Jim's count is correct, and based on the daily chart above, it certainly "looks" right, he may be on to something and it fits with this cup and handle chart.

Notice the green Fibs. Those represent extensions of Minor 1 green.

Now look at the .618 extension at 1246. That may be the target for minute [iv].

Of course a proper 38% Fib retracement of that minute [iii] would lead the market to approximately 1228, which is a very significant support level (for those who have forgotten, this marks the 62% retracement of the entire Great Recession decline).

You have all seen this Fibonacci Confluence chart before using Fib extensions and the Reverse Fib Technique to project pivot points.

Look at this longer term one, which also shows a very tight confluence at 1300.

The market has cleared the 1257 level and again appears to be targeting the 61.8% Fib Fan at, you guessed it, 1290ish.

Haven't posted a Eur count in a bit but this one may work. Look at the bullish looking MACD.

I don't show the Fib extensions on the chart but Y=.618*W at the top of the green channel and of course Y=W where I have it placed on the chart.

EOD Update

I still believe the market intends to tag the 1270 and possibly 1290 level. Until 1246 gives, I'm going to assume it continues to work higher.

There are a few things near term to be mindful off, which may be signifying a larger correction is looming, but again, until 1246 is breached, we won't worry about just quite yet.

Option 1

This option is still my primary, though it is in jeopardy. I also made a slight adjustment to the count.

Notice where I point out a potential similarity in pattern?

I'm banking on this count to complete micro 2 of subminutte v right at the MACD trendline support before bouncing to start micro 3 up.

Extended 5th Option

This extended 5th option is still on the table as well. This option implies that a wave 4 blue pullback may be in store. Looking for a proper Fib retracement if this is the case. 1246.73 would be the max pullback though to avoid a 4-1 overlap.

Subminuette iv Flat Option

This option is looking for a wave iv pullback as well. The max here is 1243.63.

Minor 4 Option

Just a reminder of this option and this is my most bearish option near term. I do have more bearish options, but until the bears show up to the party, it's not worth posting at the moment.

However, if your interested in seeing my other thoughts, just click on the links at the top of the blog.
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