Wednesday, January 19, 2011

1/19/11 - EOD Update

EOD Update

Looks like a break below the channel and a close below as well. A hammer formed on the hourly so we'll have to see if a follow through comes.


MAs

I still find it bullish that the market tested and held above the 13 day EMA again. It is also testing the trendline it recently broke out of.

Option1 and the wave 5 Extension option I have posted over the past several days have been removed due to today's sell off.

One would think with such a sell off today, there should only be a bearish count. Not so. I still have two valid bullish options.

W5 of M5

I'm calling this wave 5 of Minor 5 (W5 of M5). This replaces option 1 with some adjustments. This is a very bullish count at least in the near term.

Today's sharp sell off represents wave 2 of 5. Wave 2 retraced wave 1 50% so a proper Fib retracement has been met. This count will be invalidated if the market continues to pullback below 1261.60 will invalidate this count.

5 Min Supports W5 of M5

This is the internal count to support the above option.



Looks like a falling wedge corrective.


W3 Option

This option is in jeopardy. Though no rules are broken, today's sell off fits better as a wave 2 vs a 4. We'll see.

A bearish head and shoulders potential .

Bear Count

Here is the beginning of a bear count if the market so chooses to sell off. Technically we have only seen three waves down.

I'll keep an eye on this count and update you all should this count build momentum.

ES

Here's the ES count again. This may potentially be signaling a top for Minor 5. Something to consider.

At the end of the day, I think today may have been an opportunity to buy this dip. I'm still watching a close below the 13 day ema before giving the bearish count more consideration.
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