Wednesday, May 11, 2011

5/11/11 - EOD Update [9:35 PM Update]

[9:35 PM Update]



Here's an update to this chart which I posted at 9:42 today in the chat room. The Fibs represent wave (y)'s targets as it relates to wave (w).

[2:20 PM Update]

SPX 1 MIN

Alrighty, here's a 1 min view of today's decline. This may still be a suspect as an impulse down. Because the Minor 5 ED is my primary count, the primary labels here are calling this drop corrective and the alternate labels (in red) calling this impulsive.

Notice, even if this is corrective down, there is still room for a bounce and one more leg down. Maximum frustration with corrective counts.


EOD Update

Here's a link to the chart from yesterday'd EOD post for the Minor 5 ED option. So far the market has pulled back to the lower trendline almost spot on for either wave b or [5] or [4] of the ED.

Notice on the chart I wrote, "IT WOULD MAKE SENSE FOR 1 MORE LEG DOWN TO TOUCH EITHER ONE OF THE TRENDLINES BELOW AND ALSO TOUCH THE MACD TRENDLINE"

So far we have both. So for now this is still the primary count.

One thing to keep in mind though is the fact that the wave structure actually looks and counts pretty good as a five wave impulse down. Usually when we see a sell off like we did today, many folks jump the gun and try to squeeze a five wave count in. I usually find myself alone in trying to point out that those past sell offs were still corrective. Well, I haven't completely looked at the squiggles yet but so far on the 3-5 min time frame, it looks pretty darn good.

So what does that mean? Well, five waves down is usually followed by three waves up and then at least another five wave leg down. But before you get excited (if you're a bear) or fearful (if you're a bull), look at that father and son chart below.

If you have been reading my blog the past week or two, you will have seen the potential "rangebound" comparison I pointed out with the Sept/Dec structure. So something to be mindful of.

Should the MACD trendline break along with the ED trendline, the Minor 4 Flat option becomes the primary.

Minor 5 Ending Diagonal - Primary

Father and Son

Looks like the son didn't go rouge after all.

Minor 4 Flat - Top Alternate

Minor 3 Option - Alternate
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