Tuesday, May 17, 2011

5/17/11 EOD Update [4:17 PM Update]

[4:17 PM Update]


I forgot to post my corrective count for this decline. I believe the edge goes to this one vs the impulsive count believe.


Post Dell ER.

EOD Update

I am leaning towards the completion of this corrective move down and if anything at least a setup for a bounce to come based on the following as mentioned in the chatroom earlier:

1. The move off the 1370 high is still a three wave structure that counts corrective (there is a case for the beginning of an impulse but I don't think the probability is too high).
2. The market bounced off the 50 day SMA.
3. The market bounced off the lower daily Bollinger Band
4. The market bounced off the the trendline connected by the 8/2010 and 3/2011 low
5. The market still making higher lows



If you were following this option previously, I had it as an ED of the contracting variety. Today's sell off however, created diverging trendlines so we'll have to go with this for now.


Still very valid along with it's sub-options. Pay attention to those since another triangle forming within may still be considered.

Initially when I posted this chart, I was looking at a lower target near 1310-1300. But the new trendline that connects the 8/2010 and 3/2011 lows makes more sense and this as a baby fractal makes sense so we'll see.


If you recall the other day or two, I mentioned that I have other count options I'm still watching but won't bother to post unless there is reason that my top two are diverging. Well since the Minor 5 ED (contracting) has turned into a potential expanding, I believe this count option is worth bringing out. So we watch it.
Last but not least, this may be a way to count a a new impulse down. The problem I have with this count though is that the wave 3 of 3 (red) should have been a gap and go ordeal which we did not see today. Instead a reversal occurred on a day with not so good economic news so take it for what it is.
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