Tuesday, August 23, 2011

EOD Update

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good.

Yesterday, my near term bullish and bearish count options indicated that a low was most likely in. In fact I believe I was calling for a bottom last Fri.

I will continue to post just the near term options because there still are a multitude of options with the bigger picture.

Based on this option, I'm looking for a wave c green up with a target of 1224. C=A here as well as makes for a nice 50% retracement of the 7/7 high to 8/9 low. See the larger count here.

Notice I have iii = i at 1172. This is also near the 13 day EMA which is currently at 1174.60. This will be a level to scale over to continue to push for the bullish count.

Based on this option, today's rally was part of wave 2 up of 5 down. If this count is correct, I'd expect a rejection at approximately 1175. This is the 62% retracement of wave 1 of 5. Wave c of 2 = a of 2 here as well.

Clearly a rally above 1209 will rule this count option out and solidify the 8/9/11 bottom.

It appears the 'W' bottom on the hourly is playing out. Note there is also an Adam and Eve double bottom in the works. A break above 1209 would confirm this double bottom pattern and would project to approximately 1300.

Keep the daily W bottom pattern I presented on 8/19/11 in mind as well. The 20 SMA is currently at 1200. Should the daily break through, that would confirm step 4.


For more information on the W Bottom see stockcharts here.

For the Adam and Eve double bottom pattern click here.

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