Monday, September 12, 2011

8:34 PM EOD Update

8:34 PM EOD Update

4 Hour

We'll see if the +ve divergence kicks in.

5:06 EOD Update

Just had to make a slight adjustment to the labels for the red count.

1:10 EOD Update

What a wild day once again. As of last week's EOD, I was looking for an end to this leg down and a bounce to at least 1170.

Though the market dropped a litttle further than I had anticipated, I believe this leg is now complete and the rebound near the end of the day played out as expected when I identified the ED and the inverted H/S pattern (this occurred in the chat room)

I have two main options I'm watching.

1. Red Count - This is either a wave (ii) bounce of a wave iii down to come. Three waves up off today's low right at 38% retracement may be it, however, given the more bullish MACD at 15 and 30 min, along with a potential 60 min buy signal, this wave (ii) may turn into a double zigzag.

2. Blue Count - Wave (X) completed today and now working on wave (a) of (Y) up.

So worse case scenario, I'm thinking 1170-1180 may be a reasonable bounce given the 30 min MACD buy signal confirmation and +ve divergence. The 60 min is not too far behind.

I will be watching the 1165 level tomorrow first since that is the 60 min 20 SMA.

I haven't counted the squiggles yet either but the rally into the close certainly looks like a third wave. Whether it's a wave iii or c, I'm not sure if it's complete yet. Check back later tonight.

5 min
Blue count vs red count.

60 Min

15 Min
Let's see if there is resistance at the top of the fork there. This may coincide with the 60 min 20 SMA. See the Bollinger Bands below.

10 Min

Should the leg down truly be complete, then this fork may provide guidance for this bounce. The median line is at approximately 1180.

60 Min Bollinger Bands
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