Friday, September 9, 2011

EOD Update [9:28 PM Update]

[9:28 PM Update]

ES - 5 min

ES (Dec) makes a nice wxy. I do see a potential impulse count building as well. However, at the moment, there are only three waves down.

Should we see a bounce early next week, the height of that bounce will help determine if a five wave impulse down is forming.

We should keep an eye on this channel.

[4:43 PM Update]

I'll call this one the dark horse. This is the isolated count for the green option below. I think this one is going to catch many off guard since the "bear flag" is "obviously" forming in front of us.

EOD Update

So much for my call for a third leg up to challenge the upper channel. As bearish as today was, all is not lost on the EW side of things in terms of the count options I have been following.
The market appeared to have found support at the lower end of the channel once again.

I continue to post the 60 min chart with those four options I'm watching carefully. Though they are ranked in order, I have a stinking suspicion that the green option may be playing out and fool everyone thinking this bear flag breaks down.

The main clue to this is the fact that the market still has not made a lower low and the highs are converging.

Of course the gray channel will provide clues and signs that the red count is in full swing should the market break below it and ultimately below the red X low at 1121.09. Until then, all these options should be watched.

For now, all options point to at least some type of rebound early next week. 1170-1175 seemed to be jumping out right now at me in terms of Fib extensions, retracements and Bollinger Band studies.

I guess we'll see next week.

60 Min - Four Options

Impulsive Option

Corrective Option

30 Min Bollinger Bands

If a 'W' bottom is forming here on the 30 min interval, we should expect a test of the 20 SMA which is currently at 1169.
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