Monday, October 31, 2011

EOD Update [3:43 PM Update]

[3:43 PM Update]

Let's see if this channel holds. I drew the same one for cash on the 30 min primary chart below.

EOD Update

The price overlap below 1256 invalidated the 15 min chart I had been posting. This should be considered a big red flag and cause one to reassess the counts . Hopefully you have been paying attention to the alternate count on the 60 min Primary count below.

Because of today's overlap, we must consider that wave X may be complete. Though I am emphasizing it here, I am still calling it the alternate count because there is still one bullish option that remains as presented below on the 5 and 30 min.

60 Min - Primary
Daily - Primary
Keep an eye on the top of the descending trendline. Price stopped right at this level into the close.

This may still be counted as corrective and as a bullish falling wedge. See the 30 min below
as to how this applies.


I'm not necessarily a big fan of this nested 1-2 up but it is what it is at the moment. Wave 2 red has not quite retraced 1 red 62 % yet so it is valid.

I will look at other potential options that may call for the end of five waves up off the 10/4 low. This option would fit well with the "repeat" chart below. This of course would imply a much deeper retrace though.

Here's a separate view of the long term alternate from the daily primary above.

Since it may be possible to count wave X as complete, this is the count to consider if the 200 day SMA has rejected the month long rally.

This is the breakdown for wave X.

I'm still watching this. Even if my primary above, at least the way it is counted, is wrong, this may still provide some guidance. There are a series of MAs below that may provide a floor for the market should more selling occur.

Pre Market Update

Pre Market Update

Last week I was looking for a wave 4 pullback with a target near 1274. The action near the close appeared as though a wave b of a flat would form first, which meant challenging the 1290 high.

With the ES action pre-market, we know this is not the case and a zigzag for 4 is most likely the case. Either way, the expected target levels for 4 appear to still be on track.

The 5 min chart below may provide clues for where wave y/c of 4 will touchdown. The 1271 level will make y/c=w/a. So long at the 1256 level holds (wave 1 high), this is still considered a wave 4 pullback of an impulse wave working up.

5 min


Saturday, October 29, 2011

Weekend Thoughts [3:50 PM Update]

[3:50 PM Update]

I updated the the 2008 analogy below for the bear case and added some comments.

Check back throughout the weekend as I will add commentary on the charts and working on an additional chart to add to the bear case. I will probably re-arrange the charts below as well but wanted to put then out there for now.

Since last week's Weekend Thoughts update the bull case continues to strengthen.


Weekly 'W' Bottom
I would say this has been confirmed. Eyeing the upper band.

3- Push Pattern
I have made some adjustments to the target for 1 and 2 mainly based on the channel trendlines.

13 EMA - 80 SMA Weekly
Lots of cross ups.

Long Term Channels

LT Corrective Option
 Even this corrective count option provides for new highs.
Fibonacci Targets

2008 Repeat?

I updated this chart. There may be problems with this analogy for 2008.

During the 2008 backtest of the 50 week SMA, MACD had crossed up well before the backtest and the histograms began to diverge right at the backtest.

Compare that to today and you now have price closing over the 50 week and the buy signal confirming this week. So this comparison may not be as similar as initially thought.

This essentially weakens the bear case and if anything, weakens the analogy.

50 / 200 Month SMA
Again, this chart is 50/50 and may start to favor the bulls as the MACD histos may start to trend higher.

Friday, October 28, 2011

EOD Update

EOD Update

Looks like a wave 4 flat in the making. So I expect a challenge of the 1292 level for to complete wave b of 4, which will then be followed by a wave c of 4 drop to 1275ish.

Check back over the weekend as I will update the charts I posted last weekend. In that post, the majority of my charts favored the bulls. This weekly close continues to add to their case.

Still looking good.

Pre Market Update - ES Golden Section?

Let's see if this Golden Section technique/exercise predicts a turn correctly. For more on this technique, click here.
here's a look at copper. 3.818 is going to be key here in the next few days/week. off the 2/11 high, i am counting the move as corrective either as a wxy or abc. 3.818 will help determine which one is in play. if it's a wxy, the correction off the 2/11 high is complete. if it's an abc, the recent bounce off the 10/20 low may only be wave c of iv of an expanded flat to complete the final wave c of the abc. if the abc is in play, one more test of the low is due.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

EOD Update [9:46 PM Update]

[9:46 PM Update]

SPX - 15 min Primary
After reviewing my 15 min primary count I removed the ED option for now. I just don't think the subwaves are point in this direction at the moment. 

I have also updated the subwaves for 3 blue of (3)/(C). 

SPX - 60 min
Here is another way to look at the primary count. I have extension ratios for wave 3 of (3)/(C) and (3)/(C).

EOD Update

All I can say is wow. I've pretty much eliminated my two alternate counts (Whew. Finally because I was getting tired of updating em). However, I do have a sub-alternate within the primary there.

It's purely speculation but I'll be keeping an eye out for a potential ED.

I am also looking at the potential for an extended third here. One thing I'll be mindful though of is the high McClellan reading of 97 today.

Need to split for now. I'll have more charts later.


Again, I ask, is this repeating? Is A complete? Or did A complete a while ago and now we are well beyond C?

Weekly Bollinger Bands
I think the 'W' bottom has been confirmed. Keeping an eye on the upper BB.

Pre Market Update

I posted charts in the chat room last night starting from 5:50. 

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

EOD Update [9:25 PM Update]

[9:25 PM Update]

Wave a of 3 sports five very clear EW waves. Browsing the blogosphere tonight, I see talk by many who want to short this rally (assuming this holds up by the open). This count above should be considered should a pullback result but it may only represent a wave b of 3.

Just something to consider.

Here's a chart I continue to update in the chat room. So something to consider. Should this overnight rally hold, will this represent progress towards A? or will this confirm that point C? has already completed and does not turn back for a while.

SPX - Weekly 'W' Bottom?
And still tracking this pattern. So far it appears that step 4 may be in progress after all. Note the level where the upper Bollinger Band is currently at?

For more on this pattern see this previous post.

1268 anyone?

EOD Update

Things turned out pretty much as expected in yesterday's post albeit a minor hiccup at the open as the market rallied 14 some points before finding a daily low near 1220 and then rallying into the close.

The rally off the day's low counts as three waves up so far and what may have been wave 4 into the close.

All three counts below are still in play. A 30 min MACD buy signal was confirmed today with the 60 turning up.

The bears need to reverse this starting tomorrow or it looks like the most recent high will be challenged at 1256.


Alternate 1

Alternate 2
Battle Line

Advantage bulls at the moment.

SPX- 60 Min TL
Short term this may be a key TL.

McClellan Oscillator
Not sure how much this +ve divergence will play a role but the past two days show a reading of 49 and 71. Granted there is no divergence with the SPX on a closing basis but certainly a divergence with the reaction lows. Anyway, couple this with the primary count and a few other indicators and this may be indicating a move higher for SPX.

The weekly MACD continues to build on its buy signal confirmation. So absent a reversal the next three days, this should be confirmed.

Notice the 80 week SMA (blue line). It currently sits at 1213. So should alt 1 or alt 2 play out, I believe it may provide a floor for the market.

A possible target before a larger pullback. That just so happens to coincide with the 200 day SMA.

Pre Market Update

Pre Market Update

SPX - 3 min

ES - 60 M

ES - 15 M
Pattern-wise here, may only be a bear flag and one more leg down is required. This would equate to a wave x bounce on the spx for my primary count.
HG - 60 M
So far I count 4 waves up off the 10/25 low. 3.435 is the level to watch to determine whether a new five wave impulse up is in play off the 10/25 low or if it only completed wave b red of a wave 2 flat.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

EOD Update [7:40 PM Update]

[7:40 PM Update]

Perhaps ES is working on a larger ED?

Is copper working on wave b or 2 or is 2 complete? MACD curling back up right at the zero line.

This could work with the the ES ED.

[2:00 PM Update]

3 min
Added another version of the 3 min count that goes with the primary below. I was tracking the triangle earlier in the day so this would work as well.

[1:30 PM Update]

SPX - 60 m
Just a simple view of the structure looks bearish with the -ve MACD divergence and TL break. Keep an eye on that green TL though. We'll see tomorrow. 

EOD Update

With today's sell off, I was able to clean up some alternates within the counts.
SPX 15m- Primary
Today's sell off should be wave 2 of (3)/(C). Wave y=w at 1220 so there may be some more downside early tomorrow. So far wave 2 has retraced wave 1 50% so we'll see. A 1.618*extension takes it near 1210, which is similar to the h/s pattern shown on the alternate below.

If this count is to survive, the market needs to rally back up above the TL that it broke below today. Obviously this count will be out if the pullback drops below 1197, the start of wave 1.
SPX 15m- Alternate1
The head and shoulders pattern looks pretty decent so far. This count allows for a wave x bounce to further complete the right shoulder and back test the neckline and the broken trendline.
SPX 15m- Alternate 2
This count implies that the rally off the 10/3 low is complete. This count matches up with the ALT X on the blue hourly count. 
VIX - 15m
VIX may be completing wave c of 2 up. One thing I'll be watching though is the bullish MACD setup, which may imply that the VIX bounces higher than what I have on the chart.