Tuesday, October 25, 2011

EOD Update [7:40 PM Update]

[7:40 PM Update]

Perhaps ES is working on a larger ED?

Is copper working on wave b or 2 or is 2 complete? MACD curling back up right at the zero line.

This could work with the the ES ED.

[2:00 PM Update]

3 min
Added another version of the 3 min count that goes with the primary below. I was tracking the triangle earlier in the day so this would work as well.

[1:30 PM Update]

SPX - 60 m
Just a simple view of the structure looks bearish with the -ve MACD divergence and TL break. Keep an eye on that green TL though. We'll see tomorrow. 

EOD Update

With today's sell off, I was able to clean up some alternates within the counts.
SPX 15m- Primary
Today's sell off should be wave 2 of (3)/(C). Wave y=w at 1220 so there may be some more downside early tomorrow. So far wave 2 has retraced wave 1 50% so we'll see. A 1.618*extension takes it near 1210, which is similar to the h/s pattern shown on the alternate below.

If this count is to survive, the market needs to rally back up above the TL that it broke below today. Obviously this count will be out if the pullback drops below 1197, the start of wave 1.
SPX 15m- Alternate1
The head and shoulders pattern looks pretty decent so far. This count allows for a wave x bounce to further complete the right shoulder and back test the neckline and the broken trendline.
SPX 15m- Alternate 2
This count implies that the rally off the 10/3 low is complete. This count matches up with the ALT X on the blue hourly count. 
VIX - 15m
VIX may be completing wave c of 2 up. One thing I'll be watching though is the bullish MACD setup, which may imply that the VIX bounces higher than what I have on the chart.
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