Friday, November 4, 2011

EOD Update

EOD Update

At the moment, I believe the market may possibly be setting up a few more days of corrective waves up and down if it chooses to remain in the triangle. I believe bulls and bears may be in store for more frustration since this corrective scenario sets up several different options as  you will see below.

Until price resolves out of the triangular trendline, one must be prepared for the potential whipsaw.

Anyone short into the weekend? Based on the primary and alternate count presented below, it may not be a bad risk reward based on the wave counts.

Primary 
The primary count above has wave X green complete. However, as mentioned above, there are still too many corrective scenarios here so we'll just need to watch this three waves at a time.

Some of these options are:

1. Wave X green turns into a triangle
2. Wave X green turns into a flat
3. Wave X green turns into a flat
4. Wave Y green is underway to the Fib targets shown on the chart.


Primary - TOS version
Just showing a 60 min version of the primary via TOS.

Alternate

Now here is the bearish option should a very bearish catalyst occur over the weekend ala Greece. The head and shoulders target lines up with a 1.618*1 wave 3 extension.

Daily Bollinger Bands
Some things to consider for the bear case is the fact that the daily MACD is trying to roll over. The bulls still have the 20 day SMA as support.
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