Wednesday, November 9, 2011

Pre Market Update [6:23 AM Update]

[6:23 AM Update]

A look at ES in this light reminded me of the SPX (Alternate4) option I presented in the chat room a few days ago.  I don't want to bombard you with options/alternates but when taken all into account, it should help guide us in the right direction or keep us on the right side. We shall see.

Alternate 4

Pre Market Update

In my haste to get the EOD Update out last night, I should have placed more emphasis on the LD/ED option. In the chat room yesterday, this was the count I was mainly focusing on for most of the trading day.

With ES down some 29 points as I write this, it is safe to assume that the sub-alternate counts on the primary and what was previously alternate 1 is in play. Not only that but I have replaced the LD/ED option as alternate 1.

I forgot to mention yesterday that the market did close just under the TL drawn from the 7/7-7/22 highs.

The daily MACD should cross down at the open and signal a sell. I don't have a chart of it posted here but there is a TL support I'll be watching for if the sell signal is confirmed.

Watching the lower channel first and if that does not hold, watching the blue Fibs at 1225 and 1184.

This version of the count has wave W complete with (B) still as the sub-alternate. Again, I forgot to take note and mention the 7/7-7/22 TL.

For now we'll assume wave X gray is in progress but keep in mind there are still two sub-alternates on this main primary count as well.

The sub-alternates are either a larger triangle or zigzag down.

I focused on this count for the better part of the day yesterday in the chat room. I like this as alternate 1 over the previous alternate 1 for now.

The pullback here cannot retrace beyond the end of wave 2 and wave 4 should be a three-wave structure. It can either be an a-b-c (5-3-5) or w-x-y (5-3-5-x-5-3-5).

This count has been relegated down one notch. Looking for a touchdown in the 1220-1184 zone.

Alternate 3
This option is not out and was on life support going into the close yesterday. Until it develops a decent five wave structure down to 1200, we'll just keep an eye on this one since the other alternate options above do accomodate a corrective move down towards this area as well.

I posted a version of this count a few days ago. If the dollar is working on it's third leg up, then we should be looking for a substantial pullback for SPX.
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