Friday, December 30, 2011

11/30/11 - EOD Update

The market ended the year with a dud. It also closed below the 200 day SMA and MACD is in a sell signal from 3-60 mins.

SPX - 30 Min Primary
There is still some hope for the primary count though but I remain cautious due to the bearish MACD configuration. Lets see if the lower TL holds early next week.

I currently have wave 2 grey for 5 blue in play. It's very possible it ended right on the lower TL. If not, the bulls need to defend 1248.64 and more importantly 1242.82 or else the rally off 12/19 is over.

If 1242.82 breaks, we must focus on Primary B, which at the moment is holding its own against the primary.

SPX - 15 Min Primary B
Here I have either wave y grey of b blue of (2) trying to push towards 1267 to form a flat as the main count for this option. However, if the wave a/(2)? low is taken out, chances are greater the market is working on its third leg down to complete (2) near 1243 / 1230.

Once again, the current MACD configuration supports this count, however, until price invalidates the primary, we'll focus on that and keep an eye on this one.
SPX - Triangle Alternate
There are different variations of a potential triangle playing out. I have 3-4 other options but will not bombard you with them until there is more evidence that they are playing out.

I do believe this is the best version at the moment. This count is looking for wave [e] down to complete wave 2/B/X. This would be consistent with the direction of primary B as well.

But of course until the yellow contracting trendlines are broken, we won't know for sure.
VIX
The VIX daily looks like it may be setting up for a move higher to challenge its 20 day SMA at 24.93 early next week. Again, something else to add that favors the Primary B count as well as the triangle alternate.

That's it for me today. I want to thank all my readers for visiting over the past year.

I hope it has been a good year for you all as it has been for me and I don't just mean in the financial markets. Because lets face it, there is more to life then just making $$.

I wish you all a Happy, healthy and prosperous New Year to come!
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