Wednesday, December 14, 2011

12/14/11 - EOD Update

The short term momentum is clearly in favor of the bears. Plus a close below the 20 and 50 day SMA and a daily MACD sell signal (confirmation to be determined) presents additional challenges for the bull case.

1200 is going to be a very important level to defend if the bulls want the November rally to continue.

SPX - Option 1
The overall wave structure still appears to be an overlapping corrective structure possibly heading for the 62% retracement level if it is not already complete.

Earlier today I played around with a triple zigzag count but upon further examination, this wave structure still counts as a nice complex corrective double three that consists of a flat and zigzag.

See below for some clean Fibonacci extension ratios for wave c as well.

SPX - Option 1

Here is a Fibonacci breakdown of waves c for w and y as they relate to waves a of w and y. Notice that c=1.618*a for wave w and c=1.272*a for wave y? Those are pretty good typical Fib extension ratios.

SPX - Daily
Here's a simple chart with trendlines that appear to be converging for a rising wedge as well as a triangle.

1200 - 1182 are relevant levels via Fibonacci retracement levels for the 11/25 rally and 10/4 rally respectively. The lower blue trendline is currently at the 1190-1200 range at the moment and rising.

I'll be watching that TL as well as the daily MACD TL.

SPX- 60 min - Triangle Option
This here may still be playing out so let's keep watching this.
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