Thursday, December 15, 2011

12/15/11 - EOD Update

SPX - 30 Min - Primary
This is still the primary count. Today's rally at the open completed wave i and the rest of the day worked on wave ii. The bulls need to defend 1209 and break through the upper descending trend line if they want to get the rally going again.

Should 1209 break or should the market find resistance at the upper descending trendline, please see the alternate count below.

SPX - 15 Min - Alternate
I really like this alternate count. I almost like it more than my primary count but there is an issue with the leading expanding diagonal**.

I have wave A as a leading expanding diagonal. The market is currently working on a wave C that is channeling well at the moment.

Notice how sharp wave 2 of C is and the sideways nature of what will be wave 4 of C. Almost like perfect alternation.

I also like how wave C=1.618*A right at the 62% retracement level of the 11/25 rally, which results in a nice Fibonacci confluence at the round 1200 level.

**  In this example, wave 2 actually retraces beyond the start of wave 1. This is most likely a rule breaker so  this count may not be legit but the spirit of this count option may be relevant not to mention the Fibonacci confluence.

SPX - Triangle Option
And still watching this one.
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