Friday, December 2, 2011

12/2/11 - EOD Update

What a day. The NFP reversal occurred as suspected. The big question now is did the market complete the entire impulse wave up or is there room for one more pop?

At the moment, I'm thinking there is room for the latter. I'm thinking Monday should see a bounce for wave 5 up or a shorter bounce for a wave b of a more complex corrective.

The daily MACD buy signal was confirmed today, however, a shooting star candlestick printed along with the 60 min MACD sell signal so we'll see if this is reversed.

SPX - Primary - 60 Min
I believe a wave 4 may have completed near the end of the day due to the choppiness near the bottom. Should this wave 4 need more time to develop, it could easily turn into a complex wave with today's decline representing a wave a of a flat or w of a double three.

The 1 min chart here is why I believe a three wave corrective developed on today's decline.

Below I have two 10 min options for the larger degree primary count. The hourly MACD sell signal does have me thinking about the option 1 count below but we'll have to see if there is follow thru on Monday.

10 Min - Primary
Here's the view with wave 4 complete.

10 Min - Option 2
This count assumes the impulse up from the 11/25 low is now complete and a decline is underway back towards the 20 day SMA at 1226.

Alternate 1
I still don't really like this count and still believe it is less likely to play out but must respect it.
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