Thursday, December 22, 2011

12/22/11 - EOD Update - Golden Cross Watch and Inverted Head and Shoulders [10:55 PM Update]

[10:55 PM Update]

SPX - 15 Min - Option 2
This is a follow up to my earlier post under the 30 min Primary chart. This assumes that the market is working towards five waves up and that wave 3 completed today.

If this is the case, I  will be looking for a wave 4 pullback towards the 1247 level. From there, wave 5 = 3 at 1273 and 5=.618*1 at 1273 as well.

This is a speculative count at the moment.


EOD Update
I'm pretty satisfied with today's action based on last night's post. Today's post is going to seem a little bullish biased but I think there are things lining up that may justify it. However, the major caveat as I have previously mentioned, is that the bulls need to break through the descending trendline connecting the 7/7 and 10/27 highs and ultimately take out 1292.

With today's move and close over 1250, I believe there is a good chance that the market will attempt to challenge 1292 over the next week and/or possibly into the first week of January 2012.

Near term, the market may have a little weakness (or maybe more depending how the VIX is interpreted) but I believe the dip can be bought per the primary count I am currently tracking.

**Note: I'm not sure if all the multiple alternates I post confuse readers here. Please keep in mind that the primary will always be the count I focus on until it is ruled invalid. 


Readers should also keep in mind that if an alternate count(s) point in the same direction as the primary, then it only helps to confirm which side of the trade to be on.  

SPX - 5 Min - Primary

Here's the breakdown at the 5 min level. I believe that wave 1 grey of 3 blue completed today at 1255.22 and that wave 2 grey started.

SPX - 30 Min - Primary
The 30 min MACD ended the day with a sell signal so this may fall in line with a pullback for wave  2 grey of 3 blue.

Please read the note on the chart. I believe there may be a chance that the entire wave up from the 12/19 low may be working five waves up versus a nested 1-2 1-2. I did not add the alternate labels so as not to clutter the chart. Should the market spike briefly at the open tomorrow and then pullback and hold between the 1245-1250 level, I will make the adjustment.

SPX - 5 Min - Alternate Extended 3 Count
This alternate count views the wave off wave 2 blue as an extended wave 3. Per the count, this would only complete wave 1 grey of 3 blue near 1259, which would then be followed by wave 2 grey.

But, as noted above on the 30 min primary count, this may be all of wave 3 blue once complete. If so, this should wrap up early tomorrow at 1259 and then be followed by a wave 4 blue pullback that consolidates for the remainder of the trading day.

SPX - Daily - Bullish Triangle Alternate
Just another view that supports higher prices ahead.

SPX - Daily 50 / 200 SMA
The title of today's post. This daily chart just looks fairly bullish to me, especially when considering my bullish counts.

1. There is a MACD buy signal today that will require confirmation tomorrow.
2. The 50 day SMA is rising fast towards the 200 day SMA.
3. This will be the market's 4th attempt at the 200 day SMA and per Gann's rule of 4, the market just may break through.

SPX - Daily
I haven't really seen anyone talking about the inverted head and shoulders as much lately other than Pug. Let's not forget this especially as the 7/7 - 10/27 TL is crucial for the bulls to break through.

If it plays out, I show a target of approximately 1380, basically challenging the July high.

SPX - Daily 
I just had to post this since I love it when these quirky observations play out. I brought this up on Tues. 

SPX - Daily - Bearish Triangle Alternate
As I mentioned above, the bulls aren't out of the woods yet. This bearish triangle option must not be ignored.

However, I did mention yesterday that a daily MACD cross would begin to weaken this scenario.

VIX- Daily
The VIX found support today on the descending trendline and at the 6/6/11 high. The candlestick resembles a hammer as well so this may be lining up with the wave 2 pullback for SPX or the thrust down out of the bearish triangle.
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