Wednesday, February 29, 2012

2/29/12 - EOD Update [5:22 PM Update]

[5:22 PM Update]

At the lower end of the channel. What will she do?

EOD Update

In yesterday's post, I was looking for one last push to the 1375-1385 zone, which the market did today at 1378.04. The market also broke below the ascending trend line.

So I'd say per the primary 60 min chart below, this wave up since 12/19 may be complete.

Of course there are always alternate counts to watch out for and I do have one count to watch for tomorrow in case the bulls want to make one more stab at the upper trend line. Also note on the yellow channel on the 60 min primary chart. The lower end sits near 1360 at the moment so we'll need to see if the market wants to tag this lower end first before reversing if that is what it intends to do.

SPX - 10 Min
Yesterday I was looking for wave c to tag the 1375-1385 zone. It did just that today and y=.618*w.

However, note the alternate label as well as the alternate labels on the 3 min chart and 60 min alternate chart below, should the bulls make one more stab at 1380.

SPX - Primary 60 Min
Per this primary count, minute [c]/[3] may have topped today. Keep an eye on 1360 as well, which is where the lower yellow channel resides.

I believe MACD broke below its lower trend line too.

See the alternate option below.

SPX - 3 Min
So far the bears have three waves down. I would like to see five waves at this degree.

SPX - 60 Min Alt
Just in case we are a little early on the ED ending.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

2/28/12 - EOD Update [8:46 PM Update]

[8:46 PM Update]

The TOS version of my 60 min primary. Look at the max level for 5 of the ED based on the length of 3.

EOD Update

 The primary count is looking for wave c of 5 of the ED to complete. We'll see if the market intends to tag the upper pink or purple trend lines.

1375-1385 may be a range the market is heading for. Unless something really bullish happens from here, and odds do not necessarily favor this, I have to say it is just a question of when.

SPX - 10 Min

SPX - 60 Min

Monday, February 27, 2012

2/27/12 - EOD Update [4:50 PM Update]

[4:50 PM Update]

ES appears to be in a large triangle.

Something looks awfully familiar here.

EOD Update

Almost there or there? Posting this for now and will add to this later.
SPX - 10 Min 

SPX - 60 Min 

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Weekend Thoughts

 ES appears to be forming a small bullish pennant within a larger potential triangle.

Dr. Copper continues to look a little bullish here. It appears to be attempting to break out of the descending channel in a wave 3 that may target 4.38.

This of course assumes that wave iv is complete. Wave iv could easily form a flat/triangle here so as to alternate with the steep wave ii. We shall see.

Note the MACD.

Thursday, February 23, 2012

2/23/12 - EOD Update

I adjusted my counts from yesterday and made yesterday's alternate the primary with a slight adjustment. I believe the market may be trying to complete an ED with one final wave c to complete wave v sometime tomorrow.

The slightly different alternate version to this is that today's bounce is the start of wave 3 of 5.

SPX - 5 Min - PRIMARY 
A few things going for this count, the bounce started off with a nice five wave impulse move higher.

There is an inverted head and shoulders pattern with a neckline break today and that targets approx 1376, which so happens to be the top of the ED TL.

Wave iii/c = 1.618x i/a near here too.

Note that wave iv of the ED slightly had a throw under so wave v may very well throw over the upper ED TL.
SPX - 5 Min - Alternate
This alternate may have a larger flat in play for wave ii of 5
SPX - 60 Min - Primary 

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

2/22/12 - EOD Update

The head and shoulders top pattern I posted yesterday is still in play and the market is channeling down at the moment. I present two 5 min charts below highlighting the counts for today's move.

SPX - 5 Min - Primary Impulse down

SPX - 5 Min - Corrective Option down

SPX - 60 Min - Primary 
Price moved back below the lower half of the channel and continues to diverge with MACD.

Lets see if ES stays withing the channel overnight.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

2/21/12 - EOD Update

SPX - 60 Min Primary
Hmmm. Structurally, wave [c]/[3] may be deemed complete. If this is the case, wave i of [4] has begun or something more bearish.

The intraday reversal however, tagged the wave 4 of one lesser degree, which typically is a target for wave 2s. This would be the alternate count, a wave ii of 5, which in this case would be extending.

SPX - 10 Min

On a 10 min chart, it appears a possible head and shoulders top may be in the works. The right shoulder is now complete or should there be a quick pop in the AM, I would suspect that it would end near 1364-1365. The measured move for this h/s top targets approximately 1348.

I haven't had a chance to count the 1 min squiggles yet so I think there is a good chance the bounce off the low could be a wave 4. So this would require a quick wave v down to complete the first wave impulse down, which would then be followed by a right shoulder bounce and then proceed lower.

We shall see.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Weekly Cup and Handle and August 2010 Analog

SPX Weekly

Remember this chart? Still trying to find it when I first posted this. Anyway a while ago I noted the bullish MACD configuration and that the rim (1370) may be a good target based on it.

Well here we are. Should the market find resistance here and a pull back occur, I'll be watching 1313 of 1258 depending upon the two patterns.

How about this chart? I've posted this chart several times in the past.

Though we can't rely solely on this chart to trade with, including EW alone, but when we combine it with everything else, it surely helps to keep us on the right track.

So if this pattern is repeating, perhaps the market is approaching point D like 11/2010, which also fits with the top of the rim. Will the market now dip back to the rising 50 day SMA, which is currently at 1292.

This would fit within the 1313-1258 zone as highlighted by the cup and handle and inverse head and shoulders pattern above.

Anyway, lets keep continue to keep track of these patterns as we go along and I promise to keep better track of when I post these myself.

SPX - Daily
Here's the StrategyDesk version of my primary count. You have all seen this chart several times now too.

I'm posting this one to highlight the simple Fib confluence near the 1375 zone. Notice the red and green Fibs and their associated extensions?

Also note, when I first posted this chart why I have always had issues with considering the 5/2011 decline as impulsive?

2/18/12 Update

I am back from vacation and have access to TOS again. The primary count is right on target.

I haven't poured over the squiggle count for wave 5 blue there so I'm not completely sure if it is complete. Its pretty close though.

Here is the longer term view again. The primary view I have is that Intermediate (B) is nearly complete. The alternate view is that minute [3] just completed for Minor 3 green.

1267.06 is the key level to watch if the bullish count is to remain in play. Notice from an intermediate trading standpoint, both the primary and bullish alternate are looking for a completion of this rally that started back in November?

The bulls will try to defend 1267.06 and the bears will try to break it. A reasonable retracement would be back to 1300 even for the bullish case. That's at least 60+ points below. Of course this all assumes this leg up is complete.

If the doctor is leading, we'll see shortly.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

2/16/12 - EOD Update

SPX - Day Primary

This makes the most sense at the moment. Wave [c]/[3] may target 1370. There are still room for extensions here based on the other count I presented the other night but we'll just focus on the one above for now, at least until I get back in the saddle.

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

2/14/12 -EOD Update

I couldn't resist posting an update to my primary count. Since I do not have access to TOS at the moment, please refer to my last tweet of my primary count here.

Since leaving for vacation, I was looking for the completion of wave 5 blue but believe we may have just seen the completion of waves 1 and 2 of 5.

Below, I recreated the count on
SPX - Daily

SPX - 15 Min
Today I briefly tweeted that today's drop may be a wave 2 of 5. I think this may be a very legitimate count so we'll see how this opens tomorrow.

Monday, February 13, 2012

On Vacation

I'm currently on vacation and thought that I was going to update the blog while I was away. Obviously I'm now in full vacation-modesothere will be no updates until after the President's day holiday.

I may tweet here and there but that will be all.


Thursday, February 9, 2012

2/9/12 - EOD Update

There's no denying that this rally is getting long in the tooth and the fact that this looks good as a wedge. The question is what stage is it in if this is an ED?

30 Min
I like the fact that whether you count this entire structure as 9 waves or 13, they both assume the same thing, there should be one more leg up.

If 13 waves, one more is needed since I see 12 waves into the close. If counting this as 9 waves, notice that the wave structure after wave [8] can be treated as one last wave as an ED to complete 9 waves?

5th ED
Here's the option looking for one more wave up.  See below though should we see selling right out of the gate tomorrow.

ED Complete
This could technically be considered complete. Until it breaks down below the lower TL, lets go with the above.

ES may be looking for 1 more push up to towards the 1353-1362 zone.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

2/8/12 - EOD Update [10:20 PM Update]

[10:20 PM Update]

ES appears to be targeting 1355 as well if the triangle plays out.

EOD Update

I don't have access to my StrategyDesk charts so I had to replicate the 30 min chart on TOS. I missed most of the action today due to travel but it appears the market bounced off the proposed ED TL.

I made a slight adjustment to last night's chart. The bottom line here, it looks like the market has one more push higher to complete either [9] waves, complete 5 gray waves or complete 5 blue waves that form an ED to complete the entire structure off the 1/30 low.

Note the alternate option I have there where waves 4 gray or blue may be yet another flat and if not, it appears the Golden Section target just may be met.

Please also note the ED option limits wave 5 to 1357 or else it will be longer than wave 3.

I am on vacation so my updates will either be late or brief. I'll try to drop in the CiL early but will only be for a short while.


Tuesday, February 7, 2012

2/7/12 - EOD Update

Looks like the market is still progressing higher. The sell off at the open capped a near perfect flat from which the market rallied higher in an impulsive fashion.

SPX - 30 Min
I'm still watching the 1355-1360 level. I'm still eyeing a few options on the 30 min chart above.

1. The red labels highlight a nine wave extension, which requires one more push up. The golden section target would be a nice place to stop.
2. The blue labels is looking at the completion of wave 5 blue.
     a. Either it targets 5=.618x1 at 1350 or wave 5 blue extends to 1360 where wave 5 = 1.
3. The green labels suggest an ending diagonal for this final wave.

Now once we figure out the end of this wave, where are we? See the two 60 min charts below.

The DOW Jones Industrials printed a new high above the 5/2/11 high. So will SPX follow? If so, 1370 would be something to keep an eye on.

SPX - 60 min - Primary 

SPX - 60 Min - Alternate


Monday, February 6, 2012

2/6/12 - EOD Update [8:09 PM Update - Golden Section Target]

[8:09 PM Update - Golden Section Target]

I added some more Fib extensions for each count option. There is a confluence at 1355 and note where the blue label extends to if 5=1 and if 5=1.618x1.

[5:30 PM Update - Golden Section Target]

SPX - 30 Min - 

Most of my readers have seen this technique before. I'm still unsure of its success rate but thought I'd present it yet again.

See here for more on this.

Golden Section - Wave 5 Extended

EOD Update

SPX 30 Min 

I believe the market may have setup a gap and go situation for tomorrow per the blue labels. If that does not occur first thing, I'm watching for a potential ED to complete this wave up since 1/30/12.

Notice the Fib confluence 1360. May be a target.

Earlier I had a wave iv triangle label on the chart. I removed it for now so as not to clutter (isn't it cluttered enough?) the chart any further. Should the market triangulate here we'll bring it back.

Pattern-wise this does still look like a bearish rising wedge off the early AM sell off.

This is all I have for today. Just trying to figure out if this puppy is extending or will be ending soon.