Friday, March 23, 2012

3/23/12 - EOD Update [6:55 PM Update-RUT]

[6:55 PM Update-RUT]

Lets see if this count is consistent with a wave1 LD for SPX.

EOD Update

Shorter term, the bears have the edge at the moment since price continues in the descending channel and the daily MACD is curling down. There are a few bearish options in play as well as a bullish option that would allow another move to the downside. However, it is not a slam dunk for the bears just yet.

The bears need to take out 1386 or else the bulls are threatening to attack again early next week. For the bulls a 60 min MACD bull cross was confirmed into the close and a possible completion of a wave 1 leading diagonal. If this is the case, I'm thinking early weakness on Monday for a wave 2 and then a wave 3 up from there.

One stretch at the moment for the bull case is a possible triple nested 1-2 up, which would result in a gap and go through the descending channel, which so happens to be a bull flag. We'll see.

See the 10 min charts below for both the bear and bull options.

SPX - 10 Min - Bear Count
This calls for a wave 3 down to start next week.

SPX - 10 Min - Bull Count
Early weakness to put in wave 2 and then up through the bull flag for wave 3.

The stretch count is that this gaps and goes right out of the gate Monday.

SPX - 60 Min 
Bigger picture. Still in the ascending channel and a nice looking bull flag at the moment.


Copper may have the bull's back. The triangle is still good to go.
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