Monday, April 16, 2012

4/16/12 - EOD Update

Not much clarity today but the wave action does appear to be choppy.

Bottom line, I believe the bulls need to defend 1360 or a very large head and shoulders pattern may play out with a target of approximately 1290.

Should the bulls defend 1360, there are still several bearish options (green and pink) that allow for a move to 1400. However, the bulls may make a drive for 1418 as well (blue option).

SPX 15 Min

Head and Shoulders
Bull Option

Just a reminder of a longer term view. Note that I'm trying to figure out what minute [b] of Minor 4 is trying to do.

It can easily turn into a flat, which would require minute [b] to retrace [a] by 90%. Or a triangle could be in the works.

One other thing to keep in mind is that the most recent pull back may have just completed minute [4] of Minor 3.

Bear Option

But until the bulls reclaim 1422 and up, this count must be respected, especially with the weekly MACD hooking down.
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