Monday, December 31, 2012

12/31/12 - EOD Update

60 Min 
I've mentioned over the past week or two to be prepared to be whipsawed on the fiscal cliff issue and that the bulls had a chance to surprise to the upside.

So far the market may be confirming that. The bulls are not out of the woods yet but they managed to close the market over the 20 and 50 day SMAs.

The bears may just be setting up a right shoulder so we should keep an eye on that.

If the bulls are here to play, 1474 should be their minimum target if they are going to run with this. We'll see.

12/31/12 - Intraday Update

This corrective move down may be complete. Keep an eye on the gray option though. However, I do find it difficult to count five waves down for (i) gray.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

12/28/12 - EOD Update

Once again, the whipsaws are in effect with all the fiscal cliff news and rumors. We cannot stay fixated to one thing.

The daily MACD sell signal was confirmed today.

60 Min 

At the moment, the move for [v] red appears to be in effect. We'll see come Sunday night.

Thursday, December 27, 2012

12/27/12- EOD Update

60 Min
Welcome to Mr Toad's Wild ride. The market is chopping up in down in a knee-jerk reaction to any news related to the fiscal cliff. I believe I mentioned this last week to be prepared for this.

The bulls saved the 50 day but could not recapture the 20 day. The bears got their daily MACD bear cross and may be setting up a head and shoulders top

I adjusted the counts for red and blue. Red is looking for another poke down for [v] near 1400 again. Blue is looking to finally bring in a late Santa Rally on some more positive fiscal cliff news.

We'll see how they play out the next 2 trading days.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

12/26/12 - EOD Update

The bears looked like they were trying to get something going today but the bulls tried to take another stand. It appears as tho the market is holding on to some slight hope of a last minute deal.

On Monday, I gave the bulls a slight edge, but at this moment its 50/50.

The bears now have a close below the 20 day SMA, however, it is very difficult to justify any impulse up or down so I'm looking for possibly one more little leg down within the wedge near the 1410 level.

Once that occurs, the red option is looking for a right shoulder to form on a wave (ii) red bounce for da bears. The bulls on the other hand will try to push this over 1450. We shall see.

5 Min 

60 Min


Monday, December 24, 2012

12/24/12 - EOD Update

The direction is unclear and the 5 and 60 min charts below show that either the bulls or the bears can launch a third wave in either direction.

The bears managed to close the market just a tad under the 13 day EMA, however, the bulls were able to defend the 20 day.

Will the market surprise by the end of the year? If I had to choose,  I would give the bulls a slight edge.

We must take into consideration how well the market has held up knowing there is no fiscal deal on the table. The only room for surprise at moment would be that some form of deal is made before year end and hence surprise to the upside.

As always we shall see.

5 Min 

60 Min 


Friday, December 21, 2012

12/21/12 - EOD Update [Updated 12/22/12]

 [Updated 12/22/12] Commentary to follow later. Merry Christmas!

5 Min

As I mentioned in the update on 12/20 at 6PM, we must be prepared to be whipsawed solely on Fiscal Cliff news, which will render TA useless at the moment. However, having considered that, we will still try to guess :).

Short term, I'm keeping an eye on the wedge (pink) along with the blue count. Blue implies that wave (iii) is underway, which would line up with some type of positive fiscal cliff news over the weekend.

Note the structure counts best as a three wave (highlighted by the blue lines) structure since the 12/19 high and 12/20 high.

This implies that some form of complex corrective is working its way done. The red option provides room for one more dip lower for wave [c] of (y) should nothing occur over the weekend.

60 Min 

The market found support at the 13 day EMA along with horizontal support at 1422.


I have posted this weekly chart for a bit now and the MACD histograms is still hinting at a Santa Rally for wave 5 of C. Some perspective on the 1422 support level is also highlighted here on the weekly.

Keep in mind wave 5 can always truncate as well and we will keep an eye on any breakdown out of the rising wedge.

We'll see what happens next week! MERRY CHRISTMAS to all who celebrate it and Happy Holidays to all others!

12/21/12 - Intraday Update 10:46 M

 10:46 AM

5 Min

I tweeted this earlier on the speculative wedge. So far it is up to the blue TL (12/27-12/5 lows). Lets see if we can tighten up the wedge TLs.

6:40 AM

5 Min
Remember this retrace target zone? We are still in it so lets see if its gonna be the red option or blue.

60 Min 
Da bears get some today but not over for the bulls yet. either [a] of (y) underway or c of (ii) with this drop

Thursday, December 20, 2012

12/20/12 - EOD Update [6:05 PM Update]

[6:05 PM Update]

So much for that 3 of 3 moment tomorrow. ES is down 20 points at the moment on news that the House GOP has scrapped plan B. We must be prepared to be whipsawed.

Things can still change overnight but I highly doubt a 3 of 3 event will materialize. We'll see in 12 hrs.

EOD Update 

30 mins into the close, I tweeted that we should be looking for a potential 3 of 3 move up starting tomorrow if not into the close. The market began to telegraph this potential move a few mins into the close so we'll see.

The bear option has been reduced to a double zigzag WXY wave structure since the move from the 12/19 high to the 12/20 low counts best an overlapping three wave structure. The 4-1 overlap that occurred at approx 2:30 PM EST further corroborated this view.

Wave (x) red can still just cap off at 1448 tomorrow so we'll see what the bulls try to do.

5 Min 

60 Min 

A backtest and bounce at the 1435 level as I have been anticipating.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

12/19/12 - EOD Update

Once again, all is going as planned. Earlier today, this was the forecast for the day.

The 5 min below shows the results show far. Yesterday, I was looking for a dip back to 1435 and the market has gotten very close today.

The backtest at 1435 on the 60 min and daily chart will be a key area to watch tomorrow.
5 Min 
Note the blue alt option. If (b)? blue completed at 11:30 am (EST), then it is possible that wave (c) has five waves complete. If this is the case, then the market either bounces starting tomorrow at the open or one more lil squiggle down to touch 1435.

Using the 60 min chart below, the lower Fib retrace targets are 1429 and 1425, so something else to keep in mind.

Bulls now have to defend the 12/14 low to keep the bullish count going. If not, then the high for the year has been put in.

60 Min


12/19/12 - Intraday Update

5 min
I tweeted this a little earlier but this would be the likely path.

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

12/18/12 - EOD Update

Those who follow me on twitter and bought on yesterday's wave {ii} dip should have fared well today. Whether you believed it to be a wave 3 or c does not matter. All that matters was that one was positioned for this third wave.

Even if you traded this option, which is no longer in play, you would have caught wave c higher. 

Though the onus is on the bulls to take out the 1475 Sept high, the bear case is weakening in the short/intermediate term.

5 Min 
Five waves up is what I count. If it is complete, I will be looking for a proper Fib retracement and 1435 still stands out as a good spot.

60 min 
Backtest the previous resistance levels at 1435. The bears only hope now is that today's push completed a double zigzag (wxy) off the November low.

This is looking bullish.
Santa Rally?

12/18/12 - 8:44 AM Intraday Update

8:44 AM 

60 Min 
Something for the bears. Note the potential triple -ve divergence. Lets keep an eye on this.

 8:37 AM
5 min 
 1435 may offer another opportunity to add to long positions if you want to trade a wave {v}. However, the daily chart below provides some evidence that 1440-1435 may hold as support. We'll see.

5 Min - LD 
 This option is out.

Monday, December 17, 2012

12/17/12 - EOD Update

Last week, I was looking for a move out of the diagonal. I also posted the possible path it would take on my Friday edit.

Intraday today I posted the 5 min chart below as a potential place to buy into to this for a trade long short term. So far so good.

1433-1435 will be an interesting level to watch. This marks the 78% retracement level (typical targets for diagonals) out of the diagonal and the TL resistance level on the 60 min chart below. This would be a good place to end wave {b} black on my 60 min chart below.  I would

I would like to see a wave {c} down towards 1400-1380, however, we have to be mindful of the weekly chart below if the third leg of wave 5 is in progress. This would be consistent with some form of fiscal cliff news that sends the market higher into the end of the year.

Bulls still need to clear 1440 a higher high (12/12) and break through the TL.

5 min 

5 LD

60 Min 


Sunday, December 16, 2012

12/16/12 - E-Mini SPX

We may have our answer here with futures. We should be looking for a three wave bounce in cash for wave (b).

Friday, December 14, 2012

12/14/12 - EOD Update [3:15 PM Update]

[3:15 PM Update]

5 Min
Here is another view of the diagonal that I'm tracking. This is a rough view on the path it would take.

EOD Update

Looks like we didn't get to see the market resolve the ending diagonal that I had speculated during the course of the trading session. The ending diagonal or wedge has morphed throughout the session as well so it is not necessarily over yet.

The bears, however, closed with a slight edge going into next week since the market closed below the 50 day SMA and may be setting up a 3 of 3 event into early next week.

The bulls, however still have a chance if they can hold onto any weakness first thing on Monday and maintain the purple wedge as shown.

I think we should know pretty quick though, which way the market is headed. It will either flush down through the wedge quickly or snap out of it quickly.

5 Min 

60 Min 
So far, the breakdown of the wedge has seen prices move quickly lower, as is expected from diagonals. We are just trying to figure short term if the first leg of three is complete.

12/14/12 - Intraday Update [12:20 PM]

 [12:20 PM]

5 min
Some more downside potential per the counts. Still keeping an eye out for the ending diagonal if this does not flush out into the close. If the ED is playing out, it may drag on into early Monday next week.

 [10:31 AM]

5 min
Watch that green triangle on the chart. 

 [9:23 AM]

Working on five waves off the low and out of the wedge. the end of this leg from the 12/12 high may be over.

[8:42 AM]

5 Min
Lets start to adjust this wedge. Keep an eye on it.

[8:12 AM]

5 Min
How I'm speculating the ED "should" it play out. If not, we'll assume ii is gonna bounce here soon esp with the Fib chart below.

60 Fib

[7:53 AM]

Da bulls need to take back 1421 or da red option is threatening to make a move. I'm still keeping an eye out for an ED down here too.

[7:08 AM]
5 Min

Lets keep an eye on a possible ending diagonal here for wave (v) black if the market doesn't flush lower in option red and blue.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

12/13/12 - EOD Update

Another good call today intraday at 7:50 AM PST. I posted this intraday update. It was a near perfect EW setup good for approximately 14 points.

5 Min

A few options on the 5 min near term. I'm still leaning towards the more bearish targets below near 1400-1380 due to the break down of the rising wedge.

However, we should be mindful of the blue option here should the 50 day SMA (see below) hold as support.

As the 60 min highlights below, there may be room for one more wave c of Y move higher should that 50 day find support.

60 Min 

Note on the daily there are still higher lows and higher highs off the 11/16 low so we should not get too bearish yet.