Friday, August 31, 2012

8/31/12 - EOD Update [FB Update]

 [FB Update]


FB
An update to my FB chart. So far looks good. I first introduced this chart on 8/25/12.

**I removed the DJI chart because the count was incorrect due to a glitch with the data feed as pointed out by Amos below. I have not had time to update this count though.** 

EOD Update
60 Min
Still no resolution after Benny's address today. I have reverted back to the StrategyDesk chart and added the red option for some more near term options.

I favor the black and then red count here because the move off yesterday's low does not look impulsive to me. Plus MACD continues to trend lower. Will it respect its trendline once more here or will it break through given the green count a chance?



A second day below the 20 day SMA.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

8/30/12 - EOD Update

60 Min

As I mentioned yesterday, green and purple were aligned short term. Blue has been eliminated with the lower low below the 8/24 low.

The hourly MACD is respecting its trendline.  The rising wedge off the 6/6/12 low must be watched here.

Benny needs to appease the markets tomorrow or a much steeper sell off is in store per the green count.


Wednesday, August 29, 2012

8/29/12 - EOD Update


Still no answer from the market. I have added the purple option for the near term options. Anything can go here.

Green and purple are aligned short term vs blue.

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

8/28/12 - EOD Update


Glad I missed all the action. Very unclear per the wave count options. May have to watch this potential triangle up here.


Monday, August 27, 2012

8/27/12 - EOD Update


I am traveling for work so I will continue to be limited in what I can post. Not much change by way of counts since last week's EOD update.

Today's action did look like a bull flag that may have formed wave b of ii if following the green count.

Until a new high is printed, the green count on the TOS chart is in play along with the blue one.

Saturday, August 25, 2012

FACEBOOK TO $14?

Just a reminder wave counts on individual stocks are not recommended, but when they stand out, it doesn't hurt to apply a count.
FB- 60 Min 

FB- Daily

Friday, August 24, 2012

8/24/12 - EOD Update

5 Min
Earlier today I mentioned that short term bears should watch out due the falling wedge (LD/ED) option and defense at the 20 day SMA.

Sure enough, the market bounced at the 20 day SMA and out of the falling wedge.

So short term, both options above are looking for either a challenge of the 1427 high or at least a 78% retracement (1420) due to the break out of the falling wedge.
60 Min 
Note how the 5 min count options fit into the larger degree 60 min . The 78% retracement could just be a backtest of the broken rising wedge.

If the green option is correct and wave v of c of Y pokes at a new high, a potential quadruple - MACD divergence could be in the works.

Daily BB
The defense of the 20 day may only be setting up a bounce to backtest the lower TL of the broken rising wedge.

Daily 
Double top? The daily MACD confirmed its bear cross today.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

8/23/12 - EOD Update

This is pretty much it in a nutshell.

60 Min 
[Updated 5:05 PM]

I added the alt blue option on the 60 min above. The bears should break the 1391.74 level to invalidate it.



Daily

Almost tagged the 20 day SMA today (1399). Lets see if it finds support here or if wave iii pierces below.

Keep an eye on that daily MACD bear cross.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

8/22/12 - EOD Update


Let's see if the recent 1426.68 high holds.


Tuesday, August 21, 2012

8/21/12 - EOD Update

60 Min 
 Are the bears working on something bigger here? We'll see. So far the move off the day's high looks impulsive.
Daily
Double top?


Remember this bearish option I have been tracking? It is now invalid with the 1426.68 print today since wave 2 retraced beyond the start of wave 1, the most cardinal rule in EW.

So the best case for the bears is an expanded flat in the works so their best case is the retest of the June lows near 1266. Of course if wave C expanded 1.618* then 1174 could be possible. See the chart below for this expanded flat scenario.


Another count option from the past. We resurrect it here since the market is telling us something different is happening.

Monday, August 20, 2012

8/20/12 - EOD Update

I've had a 15 hr work day today. A tad bit tired. This is all I have for tonight.

The alternate would be to move the 4 to i if there is a new high over 1422 tomorrow.

5 Min 

Friday, August 17, 2012

8/17/12 - EOD Update

Lets see if the market has reached its double top target here. Should the market blow past 1422, I will have to take another close look at the count to determine if a much more bullish option exist that I may have overlooked. Until then, this is looking pretty good as the divergence continues to build. The market, however, cleared more of the short term divergence on the McClellan.
5 min

60 Min 


Thursday, August 16, 2012

8/16/12 - EOD Update

I was keeping an eye on that triangle which played out today. It looks like like a pretty clean five wave thrust out and reversed at the top of the TL.

We shall see if this completes the move or if we should expect to see a protracted move.

3 Min 

60 Min 


The bulls wiped out the shorter term -ve divergence but the larger one still looms at 24.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

8/15/12 - EOD Update

Not much to add today except for the 3 min chart.

3 Min 
This would be the squiggle count if the 60 min chart below is correct. However, note the blue lines I have on the chart highlighting the potential for just a three wave corrective move down off 6/14.

This means the market could just chop up and down as it crawls higher and completes with an ending diagonal or the blue option highlighted below.

60 Min

Should the market require one more push higher, the blue label option above may be the correct count where wave iv is forming a combo corrective with wave y of iv ending in a triangle and hence the small range we are seeing.


Watching the McClellan trendline there.

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

8/14/12 - EOD Update

Could this be the completion? -ve divergence continues to build.




Monday, August 13, 2012

8/13/12 - EOD Update


This is the best way to count this right now with that triangle forming up top. 1419-1420 makes wave c of Y = 1.618* a of Y. This would also create a double top with the April 2012 high.

-ve divergence continues to build so the move out of the triangle could be just a quick pop if not an outright failure.




Here's the old diagonal chart I've posted several times in the past few weeks. The retrace has been steep and has hit the 90% retracement level.

Friday, August 10, 2012

8/10/12 - EOD Update


Been a little busy lately. All I'm seeing right now is the continued -ve divergence.

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

8/8/12 - EOD Update

30 Min
Looks like an H/S and a possible drop for c/iii starting tomorrow towards the Fib targets.
 Mc Clellan Oscillator
Negative divergence.

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

8/7/12 - EOD Update

COMPLEX CORRECTIVE

I still think this is it, however, pay attention to the bullish LD below that must be considered again.

BULLISH LD
Several weeks ago I presented the LD as the bullish option and had ignored it as the market chopped higher and especially when the expected wave 2 made a shallow retrace.

However, this is an option that is still very legit for the bulls and must be watched again.

Saturday, August 4, 2012

8/4/12 - EOD Update

Complex Corrective
I still feel this is the best wave structure playing out. The pattern itself is a rising wedge and the mkt appeared to reach the top of the TL on Friday.

Note the blue zigzag that I highlighted. This is why I think this best fits a complex corrective. That in no way looks like a wave 1 impulse.

Intermediate B
This is the longer term bearish count I've been tracking. If the complex corrective above is truly playing out, bulls need to be ready here.

Mc Clellan Oscillator
The McClellan is also hinting at the completion of the wave structure with the triple -ve divergence.

Weekly Bollinger Band
The bulls need to step in here to break out of the bearish rising wedge. A weekly MACD bull cross could very well be favoring the bulls. We'll see.

Friday, August 3, 2012

8/3/12 - Vacation Update



Note the blue zigzag on the chart. Because of this clear three wave structure, I say bulls should remain cautious here.

It has obviously been a traders market the past two months but also a clear bearish lookings rising wedge that has rallied out of a falling wedge. Note the 78.6% retracement target, which has been met?

I have note this in several posts over the past few weeks so lets see what happens here.


This count, which I have been tracking for a while now and posted several times, is the one to watch and why the first chart above should be respected.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

8/1/12

I am on vacation til next week. I'm not sure I'll be posting charts. We'll see.

This surely looks corrective and as a bull flag.