Friday, November 30, 2012

11/30/12 - EOD Update [4:34 PM Update]


[4:34 PM Update]

60 Min 
Some addtl things to look for in the near term. Some Fib extension targets if wave iii / c is up on tap. A possible ending or leading diagonal in the works?

Note the red ascending trend line from left to right is drawn with the 10/4/11 - 6/1/12 lows. 


EOD Update 


For those of you who follow me on twitter, I made the triangle adjustment today after the previous one failed. So far this turned out to be the case.

Based on my near term count options, 2 of 3 is pointing towards a rally starting no Monday, possibly on positive fiscal cliff news being announced over the weekend.

The third near term option call for a quick head fake at the open before dropping back.

5 min
The color options above do not correspond with my 15 and 60 min chart, however, the pattern is the key.
15 min 

60 min 
Either wave (iii) blue starts early next week or wave (c) green.

Weekly
The best longer term count option I favor right now. The market needs to clear the 50 day SMA at 1422 first to give this some creds.

11/30/12 - Pre market [7:30 AM Update

 [7:30 AM Update]

For those who could not see the tweets earlier.

5 Min
15 Min



Pre market
ES
ES completed its triangle as speculated last night but has since pulled back to the mid channel line.

Need to keep an eye on cash if it completes its tri as well and quickly pops to complete wave (v) and then reverse. Should this happen, I suspect the 50 day caps the pop so lets keep an eye on the upper TLs.



Thursday, November 29, 2012

11/29/12 - EOD Update [3:45 PM Update]

[3:45 PM Update]

ES
Lets see if ES can hold the gray mid-channel and the triangle pattern.

EOD Update
15 Min 
Yesterday I posted that the market's next stop was most likely the 50 day SMA. Today it came within 3 points.

Blue is still looking pretty good and continues to ride up the blue channel. There is possibly a small triangle forming up here before another push higher.

I have added an additional bullish purple option that suggests the market is setting up a nested 1-2 i-ii up. This could very well happen tomorrow along with the break out of the triangle so we'll have to see if it is sustained should it occur.

The green option as labeled above suggest that wave (c) completed with a truncated fifth. I don't necessarily like this at all (and this is the lowest in priority for me by way of options) since wave (c) is very short in relation to wave (a).

I have lots of channels and trend lines on the chart and one other one to watch is the red rising wedge. This wedge would be consistent with the markets hesitancy with regards to the fiscal cliff news as the market chops back n forth up and down.

So long as higher highs and higher lows are made, we will follow the blue count as it climbs towards the inverted H/S target near 1435 and then the wave iii=i target at 1351.

In the short term, lets see what the market does at the 50 day SMA. If the bullish wave count is correct, the nesting of 1-2s would make it consistent with the nesting of 3s and 4s just below the 50 day before breaking up through it.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

11/28/12 - EOD Update [9:40 PM Update]

[9:40 PM Update]

ES
ES is out of the channel and up 5 tonight. We'll see if cash follows up with this tomorrow and makes its way to the 50 day SMA.

EOD Update
15 min
I'm really liking the blue count here. As I mentioned yesterday, the lower Fib retraces should've been watched today along with the 20 day SMA and the neckline of the inverted head and shoulders.

The market managed to completely reversed a 13 point drop, after backtesting the 20 day, neckline and 38% Fib retrace.

The most bearish count represented by green has been adjusted and is not bullish short term. I will have to take a look later to see if there are any other bearish counts on the table.

Looks like the market's next stop will be the 50 day SMA. Lets see what the wave structure looks like at that level and how price reacts there.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

11/27/12 - EOD Update

15 Min
Coming into today, I was favoring the blue count and so far that seems to be the correct option. The market came very close to reaching the y=w mark at 1397 today, so it is possible the correction for ii blue is complete.

However, there are other Fib targets below that should be watched along with the neckline at approximately 1390. Note the adjustment to the gray option.

I have now added the purple option, which is a very bullish nested 1-2 up.

The 20 day SMA is currently at 1393. Options blue and purple would favor this as support before a launch higher.

Option gray is shorter term bearish but eventually will result in prices higher from the 1380 zone.

Green is the only bearish count at the moment.

Monday, November 26, 2012

11/26/12 - EOD Update

15 Min
Lots of near term options. I'm liking blue given today's action but keeping in mind gray still works due to the bullishness of the 15m MACD.  The market could very well now have re-established support at 1400 and may not cross below it again.

Note that if blue does play out, a bullish inverted H/S could be setting up.

Friday, November 23, 2012

11/23/12 - EOD Update

SPX - 15 Min 
I adjusted the gray count slightly to reflect the impulsiveness of this wave up. There is an inverted head and shoulders target near 1435, which suggest a test of the 50 day SMA.

I like the gray option as the primary at the moment.

The daily chart below shows the confirmed daily MACD bull cross and the 50 day overhead.
We'll see what happens once it gets there.

SPX - 60 Min 

SPX - Daily

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

11/21/12 - EOD Update

10 Min 
The 10 min highlights 3 near term options that I'm tracking.

Green - Wave (c) of  (iv) completed with the wedge.

Gray - Trying to wrap up wave i.

Blue - A variant of green.

60 Min 
 Daily MACD crossed up today. Must keep an eye on the NYMO as well.
AAPL - Weekly
Gotta keep an eye on AAPL. If it consolidates in the 570 - 520 region, we must be mindful of that descending right shoulder forming. That will be bearish.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

11/20/12 - EOD Update

The market now looks like it completed five waves up with wave {v} ending in an Ending Diagonal.

The intraday pullback counts as five waves down so I'm guessing that was a wave 'a' of either {iv}? black , ii gray or (b) green. So there should be one more leg down possibly towards the 38% retracement.

However, we must keep in mind if the market rallies through today's high, than it is quite possible that wave {iv}? black, ii gray or (b) green completed at the 23.6% retracement, which would be a backtest of the 200 day SMA.

10 Min 

60 Min 

Monday, November 19, 2012

11/19/12 - EOD Update

As anticipated in last week's EOD Update, the bounce was underway either for {iv} green or a wave 5 gray. I also suspected that the catalyst was going to be related to the fiscal cliff.

Now the challenge is deciphering what sort of bounce this is. The bulls made a small statement today by closing back over the 200 day SMA but you know what they say about a single day.

So far the first part of the bounce looks impulsive so I will give the bears at least a zigzag or a two-legged bounce.

Note my AAPL weekly chart below. A few days ago, I speculated that it could potentially be forming a sloping neckline. So far, a bounce right on that line that was arbitrarily drawn.

As AAPL has been leading the past several weeks, we should keep an eye on this potentially more bearish H/S.

10 Min 

60 Min 

AAPL- Weekly

Friday, November 16, 2012

11/16/12 - EOD Update

SPX - 60 Min
 It appears {iv} green is underway. Keep watch on the gray option now, especially if some "fiscal cliff" news creates the catalyst.

AAPL - 60 Min 
AAPL looking to do the same with a wave iv bounce right at the 522 level.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

11/15/12 - EOD Update

SPX- 60 Min 
Not much to add from yesterday. Can't say for sure if {iii} is subdividing further down but we should be mindful of it.

Watching for the potential +ve MACD divergence here.

AAPL
AAPL has already hit the 2.618 extension target. 522 was hit as anticipated back on 11/2.

AAPL - Weekly
Does she find temporary support here or does she drop a little further towards the arbitrarily drawn pink TL to form a down sloping neckline before a bounce?

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

11/14/12 - EOD Update

60 Min
As tweeted earlier, green is the option to watch. However, gray has been added at the 60 min level to track the weekly count option below. I introduced this count several weeks back on the 10/23 AM post. 
Weekly

Long term 
Note the longer term blue count. This would play with the 60 min green count heading lower to the lower TL near 1300.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

11/13/12 - EOD Update

60 Min
Green is the count it is with the triangle for (iv).  Orange is out with the 1371 print today.We'll see if the tri holds or if (v) of {iii} is underway.


Monday, November 12, 2012

11/12/12 - EOD update

60 Min 
No change since Fri's EOD update.

Friday, November 9, 2012

11/9/12 - EOD Update

60 Min
Green and orange in play. Both favor at least another tiny leg up to either fulfill the triangle for (iv) green or a zigzag or wave (iii) orange.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

11/7/12 - EOD Update

SPX - 60 Min 
 Could the correction be over?

SPX - Weekly
Maybe? If there is a year end rally in store the blue line marks the spot.

AAPL - 60 Min 

AAPL - Weekly
Not so very good looking for AAPL.

AAPl - Weekly 
Another way to look at the potentially larger H/S for AAPL. Lets keep an eye on this one too.


11/7/12 - EOD Update


I posted this chart back on 10/23 and warned this is a count to consider. Here we are today.  Lets see what happens.

Tuesday, November 6, 2012

11/6/12

5 Min
Didn't get a chance to post the EOD Update last night.

Friday, November 2, 2012

11/2/12 - EOD Update

The market continues to make lower highs and lower lows but also appears to be wedging. If the bulls want a shot at the 1474 high, they need to get moving soon here.

SPX - 3 Min
Green and Orange moving right along. Wave (c) of ii orange is nearly 1.38 * wave (a) of ii.

SPX - 60 Min 

AAPL - 60 Min 
AAPL is extending lower. Note the 2.618* extension target.

AAPL - Weekly
The weekly shows that short term support may hold at 570 before a bounce. After that bounce, we'll have to see if it truly is a right shoulder before heading lower to 520.

Have a great weekend!

Thursday, November 1, 2012

11/1/12 - EOD Update

60 Min 
Looks like we got our wave (iii) and (c) per both options. I do not have time to present a 5 min squiggle count but it certainly looks like either wave 4 of (iii) or (c) is in progress. Will keep an eye for a possible triangle up here.