Thursday, February 28, 2013

2/28/13 - EOD Update

Looks like the intraday call was right with the triangle. After the breakout of the triangle, SPX may have completed wave {i} of (v).

Low and behold the bears defended the wave i high so the bearish nested 1-2 i-ii count is still on the table as well but I'm not sure the odds are good that this is the correct count since wave ii has retraced wave i signifcantly.

I believe the other alternate I have is the completion of a wave [x] of (iv). This has better odds than the nested 1-2 i-ii down but both imply the same thing near term.

In fact all three options are looking for a sequestration pullback tomorrow.

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

2/27/13 - EOD Update

Welcome to Mr Toad's Wild Ride. Yesterday I mentioned that the bulls had a few things going for them near term and they surely took advantage of it.

I also mentioned the potential VIX equity buy signal, which did trigger today.

This leg up today, may take a little breather so lets see what the pullback looks like tomorrow.

5 Min 
Right now, I'd say stay nimble because there is a case for both the bulls and bears.

For the bears:

1. The bears still have the potential nested 1-2 i-ii down. This option is out if 1525.84 is taken out.

2. There are still lower highs and lower lows since 2/20.

3. A potential leading expanding diagonal may also be developing, which is bearish.

4. It is also possible that a larger wave (iv) triangle could be developing, which would send the market range bound for a little bit.

As for the bulls:

1. VIX equity buy signal

2. The bounce off today's low appears to look like an impulse that may have a few extensions in store.

3. A close back above the 20 day SMA.

60 Min 


Tuesday, February 26, 2013

2/26/13 - EOD Update

There was some chop near the day's low, which turned out to be an ED to complete what may have been wave (iv) or wave [w] of (iv) or wave i of a nested 1-2 i-ii down.

5 Min 
Some things going for the bulls near term:

1. 30 min +ve MACD divergence
2. An inverted h/s
3. A potential VIX sell, equity buy signal in the works. One more lower close for the VIX will confirm it.

The bearish scenario calls for a larger degree 3 of 3 gap and go down on tap if wave ii is not complete yet.

Looks like a tiny bear flag. We'll see.

60 Min 

VIX - Daily

2/26/13 - Intraday Update

11:23 AM Update

5 Min 

Some other Fib targets.

11:07 AM Update

1 Min
I adjusted the squiggles a little to reflect the ED I tweeted earlier today. Here is a target for the inverted H/S and 62% Fib target.

10:00 AM Update

60 Min 

The bears need to keep momentum going here. They cannot give up the 2/25 high, otherwise, the case for wave (iv) is pretty strong.

9:20 AM Update

1 min

One way to count 5 waves down off the 2/25 high.

8:00 AM Update

5 Min 

A possible descending triangle here. Thrust target at 1475, which is a legit level to target. Note the trend line below. It connects the 11/16 and 12/28/12 lows.

Monday, February 25, 2013

2/25/13 - EOD Update

This was a nice EW set up folks. Last Friday I posted that [ii] would wrap up early today and that 78% retracement could be a target if 62% failed.

Sure enough, right near 78% the market reversed. Earlier in the day I tweeted that the first little leg down may have been suspect for the bears so keep an eye out for a potential C wave of a triangle due to the overlapping structure.

However, that structure now may be treated as a potential coiled spring and I believe a 3 of 3 event may have begun today.

5 Min 

60 Min 
Some Fib targets for this leg down.

Friday, February 22, 2013

2/22/13 - EOD Update

5 min 
I updated this chart through out the day. So far short term, I'm leaning for the bears.

We'll see if [ii] wraps up early Monday. So far the bounce is overlapping and at 50% retracement. Wave [ii] could go as high as 78% but lets see what it does at 62 first.

60 min 
Still looking for at least another leg down if (iv) is playing out. However, keeping in mind something more bearish could be in the works.

Too obvious? Maybe but it is lining up with the short term count.

No shooting star candlestick but watch the MACD histos and trendline. Things are slowly turning.

Have a great weekend!

2/22/13 - Intraday Update

12:50 PM Update

5 Min 
Looks like we may see a pop into the close and maybe remnants of this move on Monday.

Keep an eye on that potential ED too.

11:40 AM Update

5 Min 
Indeed a double zigzag. 1518 is something to watch. A few Fib clusters there.

8:35 AM Update

5 min 

Note the potential double zigzag option for [ii]. Watching the Fib targets above as well as the wave [i] low for clues. Wave (w) = (y) right near the 62% Fib retrace target.

7:04 AM 

5 Min 
There's the wave (c) of [ii]. It looks done.

Thursday, February 21, 2013

2/21/13 - EOD Update

The bears followed thru with their plan to create a larger degree five wave move down.

5 min 
Two options here. Primarily looking for a wave (c) of [ii] bounce into tomorrow early before resuming lower. 1510 may be a good target since that lines up with the 20 day SMA, 38% Fib retrace and (c) = (a) of [ii].

The other option is that a more bearish nestd 1-2 i-ii down is in the works and the floor drops at the open tomorrow. Note the sub alt for the bearish nested 1-2 as well.

60 Min 

2/21/13 - Intraday Update

12:30 PM Update

5 Min 

So far looks decent for five waves down. The only thing to consider is that (v) is a little choppy so must consider an even more bearish nested 1-2 i-ii down.

Not the alt labels for the bearish nested 1-2 i-ii down. 

8:21 AM Update

5 Min 
I converted this to a 5 min chart. so far (iv) has hit the min retrace target. It can certainly slosh around here some more and consolidate. We'll see.

Gotta run

 Intraday Update
3 Min
An impressive wave (iii). It has extended wave (i) 2.168x.

In case you are not following me on twitter, this is what I posted earlier. Looking for a wave (iv) bounce. Bears need to defend the red line.

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

2/20/13 - EOD Update

3  Min
I started tweeting this 3 min chart today (finally had some free time!). The bears finally squeezed in a tiny five wave move down for wave (i) red. Wave (ii) bounced quickly to 38% Fib retrace before launching wave (iii) lower towards a 1.618 Fib extension of (i).

Note at the higher degree, it is a three wave move at the moment (i)-(ii)-(iii). For now, I have added the green double zigzag as an option.

Lets see what happens here at the 20 day SMA, which the market nearly tagged. If the bears wanna build a larger degree five wave move down, they need to defend the wave (i) low at 1521.17.

15 Min 
I presented this count yesterday but as you can see above, there was a [iv]-[i] overlap. So with that, I will consider wave (iii)/(c) on the 60 min chart below complete.

Should a new high be made, we'll go back to the drawing board, until then, lets see what the bears have in store.
60 Min 

I posted this the other day and with today's move, we should pay attention to the potential shooting star candle stick and potential quadruple -ve divergence.

At the end of the day, the burden is still on the bear to signal an end to this rally.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

2/19/13 - EOD Update

Nothing really new to add. Waiting for [iii] to end. Should it be complete, the 15 min below highlights some possible wave [iv] targets.

15 min 

60 Min 
Note the H/S target above at 1557ish. The weekly below shows the next stop may also be 1552ish should the 1523 level hold.


Sunday, February 17, 2013

2/17/13 - Update [2/18/13 Update]

[2/18/13 Update] 

60 Min 

Sorry. Got a little sloppy there. Failed to see the [v]-[i] overlap on the count below.

So either [iii] is still wrapping up or somehow {v} topped out (green alternate). We'll see.

2/17/13 - Update
60 Min 
Sorry folks things have been a little hectic on the home end here. Its been a week since my last update but I did mention that this wave appears to be extending, which it continues to do.

A retrace of the previous wave 4s would be a clue that the trend for this wave up may be coming to an end.  Until then we'll keep an eye on the extensions.

It may be futile to attempt to count the squiggles but here is my latest attempt.


Here's a long term count I've been tracking. For this version, wave (5) = (3) at 1539.57. Should the market exceed this level, this version of the count will be out the window.

Monday, February 11, 2013

2/11/13 - EOD Update

60 Min 
Not much to add. I can only guess that this has extended. Until the previous wave 4s are retraced, we'll just assume there may be more extensions higher.

Thursday, February 7, 2013

2/7/13 - EOD Update

The triangle I proposed 2 days ago is still looking good. I'll keep monitoring it but I have introduced the red option on the 15 min chart as well that should be monitored.

The red option can represent two things; 1. A bearish move signifying the end of the run from 1340 or 2. A much bigger wave c down that may challenge the 1470-1490 zone.

15 Min 

60 Min 

2/6/13 - EOD Update

60 Min 

Sorry for the late post again but there was not change to my 2/5/13 post and so far that seems to be the case.

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

2/5/13 EOD Update

60 Min 
Sorry for the late update. This is what I'm speculating may be happening with the roller coaster ride.

Monday, February 4, 2013

2/4/13 - EOD Update

60 Min
It looks like (iii) is complete. The bulls need to defend the 1448 level to preserve the impulse up.

The bears, of course, need to take the market back thru 1448 to create a (iv)-(i) overlap for the blue option, rendering the impulse void. Lets see if the bears can form a much larger impulse wave down.

Lets continue to watch this wedge. As posted last Fri, a sudden collapse would mark the end of this move up.

Friday, February 1, 2013

2/1/13 - EOD Update

The market has continued to track along with the blue count. It has now reached the top of the ending diagonal as well.

We shall see in the coming weeks what the market intends to do. Either break out and up to challenge the all time highs or look for rapid breakdown of the wedge.

60 Min 


Long term
We can speculate all we want on the longer time frame but it may not do us any good. However, if I had to choose, these are the two best options IMHO.