Monday, September 30, 2013

9/30/13 - EOD Update

The bears continue to work the market lower with a gap down below the h/s neckline (target ~1650s). The black option represents a wave structure that may extend lower towards the h/s target.
10 Min 
The daily chart shows a rising wedge with the market close below the 20 day SMA, albeit with a potential bullish hammer candlestick. Triple negative divergence in play as well.

I'd say go with the bear count for now until the bulls can break out above the blue TL (10 min above).


Or do you believe in buying the dip? The red option on the 10 min above and weekly chart below may provide a case for this.


9/30/13 - AM Update

Let's see if this is a repeat of 9/27/13.

3 Min - 11:41 AM

The black count option is still in play and could turn out to be an extended move lower as the market stair-steps it's way down to the lower TL noted earlier on the Daily.

10 Min - 9:14 AM

Lost the 20 day SMA. Let's see if the green TL is the obvious target. Note the triple -ve divergence.

The threat of a government shutdown has provided the catalyst for the red count to resume lower and finally breaking through the neckline.

We'll see how much selling occurs here.

10 Min - 6:31 AM

Friday, September 27, 2013

9/27/13 - AM Update

On Wednesday I mentioned the possibility of a falling wedge that may favor the bulls if the market continues to chop lower. Since Wednesday, the market is still chopping lower so we must be cognizant of this falling wedge.

A break out up would help confirm the pattern.  If so, it could be a sharp bounce. Keep in mind, this falling wedge could support the bear case as well since it would represent a leading diagonal wave 1 or a down.

10 Min - 10:09 AM

Thursday, September 26, 2013

9/26/13 - EOD Update

Some slight adjustments to the counts from yesterday.

I won't address the bull count unless the market can break above the blue descending trend line.
10 Min 

Wednesday, September 25, 2013

9/25/12 - EOD Update

The bears may be setting up the next leg down here. The top two bearish options are:

1. A wave {iii} black begins down tomorrow or one more push for wave (e) of c of the combination corrective I have highlighted in red.

I have one potential options for the bulls but that will depend on whether the market continues to chop lower in a falling wedge fashion. I'll post an AM update tomorrow if that begins to take shape.

10 Min 

9/25/13- AM Update

Another possible count pointing for more lows. Note the red combo corrective with the triangle forming at the end. Something to watch out for.

10 Min - 12:46 PM PST

A new larger H/S?

10 Min - 12:00 PM PST

Wave {ii} at 62% retracement and backtest of the h/s neckline. Bulls need to defend the first wave here on the AM's bounce.

10 Min - 9:04 AM PST

Backtest of the bear flag. Is {ii} complete?

10 Min - 7:48 AM PST

10 Min - 6:49 AM PST

Tuesday, September 24, 2013

9/24/13 - EOD Update

The bears continue to build up some momentum but should not get too excited yet. I would like to see them break today's low, which would lead me to believe that at least a third leg down (whether a wave iii or c) is underway.

If another leg down is underway, 1672 may be a good target. This also lines up with a back test of the 20 day SMA.

This would also line up with at least the weekly chart below, which is looking for a wave iv dip.

Short term (10min), the bears do appear to be forming a bear flag and a larger h/s (not shown on the 10 min below).
10 Min 


9/24/13- AM Update

Wave (ii) / (b) complete? We'll see. It's possible wave a may also be a LD so bears need to make a new low.

10 AM - 11:35 AM PST

Let's see were wave c ends up. Wave c = .618*a at 1710.

10 Min - 9:40 AM PST

Has the market formed five tiny waves down?

10 Min - 8:20 AM PST

Saturday, September 21, 2013


Been slammed at work so not much time lately. The previous red and purple options (bearish) I was tracking were eliminated with the new high.

At the moment, the most logical count is the bullish green option. It meshes in well with the weekly (extended option) chart I have been tracking if the move since Oct 2011 has been extending.

60 Min 


Monday, September 16, 2013

9/16/13 - AAPL Weekly - In Trouble?

I haven't posted this chart in a while. Could AAPL be in the midst of a very large move down?


9/16/13 - EOD Update

No change really. The bears have to defend the solid red horizontal line

The purple triangle option can also be a barrier triangle. So until a new high is made above the red horizontal line, we'll just see.

60 Min 

Friday, September 13, 2013

9/13/13 - EOD Update

Not much to add. That triangle on the daily is still looking pretty good if the red option fails.

60 Min 


Wednesday, September 11, 2013

9/11/13 - EOD Update

No change from yesterday's post. The red option is still in play until a new all time high is made.

Take a look at the weekly chart below. I posted this a few times before. This would line up with the green option if the market is extending to 2000.

60 Min 


Tuesday, September 10, 2013

9/10/13 - EOD Update

Wave 2 red is still in progress and now beyond 62%. Yesterday I mentioned that I questioned the green option and that a potential triangle may be a better explanation for the bullish case.

I have added the purple option to the 60 min chart below.

60 Min 

I posted the daily triangle yesterday. In the past, when I have posted charts like this, the upper trend lines were always drawn arbitrarily and based more on an expected form. This is the case once again.

However, in those instances, more times then not, when they do turn out to be triangles, I have found that the lines usually are spot on. We'll see if this is the case again.

Monday, September 9, 2013

9/9/13 - EOD Update

The purple option was ruled out today. The red option is still looking for the completion of wave 2 red within the range I have pointed out (1658-1677). The market is close to the upper range, which so happens to be the 62% retracement of wave 1.

60 Min 
I still don't really like the green option above since the bounce off the 8/28 low looks too corrective to me. What I do like better if the market is set to continue higher, is a potential triangle in the works that began late June of this year. See the daily chart below.


Thursday, September 5, 2013

9/5/13 - EOD Update

No change from yesterday's post.

The 1 min below may highlight the beginning of an impulse wave off the wave y (red) or {ii} (purple) high.
1 Min 

60 Min 

Wednesday, September 4, 2013

9/4/13 - EOD Update

The red option is right on track. The market pushed higher in a wave c of y of 2. Wave y is now 1.38*w.

The target zone still sits near 1658-1677, however, wave 2 red has retraced enough of 1 to be considered complete.

The purple option as previously labeled has been eliminated but an adjust option has been added. keep in mind, purple and red are ultimately looking for the same thing. Purple is just a tad bit more bearish.  I have the purple line to designate where purple will be completely eliminated.

Note there is still a green option, however, I have not seen a clear impulse off the 8/27 low yet.

60 Min 

Tuesday, September 3, 2013

9/3/13 - EOD Update

Top count options are still red and purple.

Red is looking for wave c of y of 2 to complete on a bounce before resuming lower. The bounce could be targeting the 20 day SMA at 1662 to complete wave 2 red.

Purple is looking for the market to break through the blue trend line starting tomorrow.

60 Min 

9/3/13 - AM Update

Updated the purple option.

60 Min - 11:29 AM

Wave y is underway as expected. The market also bounced out of the wedge as I was suspecting.

Note that the red option may just easily be labeled an "a-b-c" for the wave 2 flat.

The more bearish purple option is not out either so long as the wave ii (purple) high is not taken out.

60 Min - 7:31 AM