Monday, December 23, 2013

12/23/13 - AM Update

Been on vacation and will be out until the new year. In my last post, I mentioned that (5) = (1) at 1871 and .618*(1) at 1831. So far it has hit close to 1831. We'll see how this all plays out. 


Wednesday, December 18, 2013

12/18/13 - EOD Update

The market likes the taper news. After making one more touch on the lower TL of the wedge, the market reversed course quickly.

We'll see how high this goes if it is following the blue count.  (5) = (1) at 1871 and .618*(1) at 1831.

60 Min
15 Min 

One more stab at the upper in of the range.


12/18/13 - AM Update

Just waiting on the Fed. Added the gray option.

7:00 AM

Monday, December 16, 2013

12/16/13 - EOD Update

Finally got that bounce I was looking for. Some uncertainty going into the FOMC mtg minutes.
Both bear and bull counts are in play so unfortunately it can go either way.

One thing I notice is the 60 min chart somehow reminds me of a topping pattern we have seen in the past, which was mistaken for a consolidation pattern only to fail.

5 min 
15 Min 

As I posted near the beginning of the month, we should watch the range and stay nimble. Three touches at the bottom so far. Two at the top. Will there be a third? Not if the bears can help it. We'll see.

60 Min 

12/16/13 - AM Update

I see a potential pattern playing out here. We'll see if it repeats.

9:38 AM

Bulls have a level to defend.

8:06 AM

With this bounce, the bears have now morphed the count to a nested 1-2 down. Not sure how that will turn out for them.

6:45 AM

I haven't keep count but have been watching. The 10 yr yield may be taking a break and possibly dip into year end.


Looks like we are going to get that bounce after all that I was looking for. We'll see if it is just a wave c poke.
Pre Market

Sunday, December 15, 2013


Going into Friday I assumed there was a good chance a bounce was in store. As the trading day progressed, the triangle pattern I posted was indicating a continuation to the downside if the bulls do not step in.

Keeping things simple on the hourly chart below. The bulls need to defend 1729 to preserve the impulsive count. The bears (and bulls just not below 1729) have some extension targets between 1756-1722 if wave iii is in progress.

Friday, December 13, 2013

12/13/13 - AM Update

Bulls need to step in or this will look like a triangle.

11:55 AM

As I posted yesterday,  a good chance a bounce is in store. We'll see if there will be a small double bottom here today for that bounce.
9:21 AM

Thursday, December 12, 2013

12/12/13 - EOD Update

The bears finally have a decent five* wave impulse structure down at. However, I have noted that I have issues with wave i red. I can't find an old post, but I brought up the same issue in the past and it turned out to be the right call.

What may fit better is the purple flat option. The 60 min and daily chart below shows how that would fit into the bigger picture.

At this point, unless the market crashes from here, a good chance a bounce should be coming with either count option.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

12/11/13 - EOD Update

Not too much faith on the red count specifically because wave i just does not look right. The purple is the better count and would fit in with a larger flat for wave (iv) on the daily count.

The market is coming up on the lower end of the range again. We'll see if there are any bulls left to step in.

Should the red count prove to be correct, it is very likely a bounce is in store that would trap the bulls. We shall see.

5 Min 


15 Min - Range

12/11/13 - AM Update

Wave c of y purple complete at the lower TL?

10:07 AM

Watching the red TL for any signs of support.

8:55 AM

Looks like purple and red took over. The range continues to apply so let's watch the lower end here.
8:38 AM

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

12/10/13 - EOD Update

Hard to say exactly but now I have to favor the green count today. This changed intraday of course, if you were following my tweets.  Earlier today I posted the case for a double zigzag (w-x-y) down for wave iv green.

I don't really like wave iii red. Just looks too overlapping.
5 Min 

15 Min 
Not sure about this inverted H/S but worth a note.

12/10/13 - AM Update

A good chance a double zigzag (w-x-y) completed at support in a falling wedge manner. We'll see.

11:32 AM

1802 providing support to what is turning out to be a falling wedge.

11:17 AM

Hard to say. I'll give a little edge to the bears here because of the red and pruple option and 60 min macd.
8:55 AM

Monday, December 9, 2013

12/9/13 - EOD Update

Not too exciting today. The bulls weren't able to muster up enough energy to make new highs.

Instead, they have decided to go with a potential flat for wave iv with wave c ending as an ED.

The bears on the other hand, were able to stop the bulls and potentially force a double top. What could be favoring the bears is the new option I added in purple. A larger flat that could be in play.

As I posted on 12/4, we may want to remain nimble in this range and so far, we are back at the upper end of it.

12/9/13 - AM Update

Wave c may be an ED.

12:52 PM

Could be a flat if not a double top.

11:09 AM

If this hasn't double topped, some targets for wave iv.
9:29 AM

Friday, December 6, 2013

12/6/13 - EOD Update

No bears in sight today. I lean towards the green count right now but only slightly more so than the red.

5 Min 
The daily chart below is the count showing the wave extension since October 2011. What is questionable at the moment is the count after wave 10 (green). Did (iv) complete at wave 10 or was it a running flat that completed at wave 12 (green)?


12/6/13 - AM Update

If you are interested, the potential descending triangle.

60 Min - Triangle Option

Purple is out, green and red still in play. I'd probably give more weight to green but as I posted a few days ago, stay nimble in this range. I'll start to look for that triangle potential descending triangle.

5 min - 11:10 AM

A stripped down version.

5 Min - 8:38 AM

From a squiggle perspective, maybe one more little push higher to complete iii unless the shorts get squeezed here and iii extends higher. An extension for iii or c to 1.618* = 1811.

5 Min - 6:44 AM

Red and green should open as the leaders. Purple will be out. Remember, bulls need to cautious that this is not a trap.

5 Mi n- 6:20 AM

ES - 6:20 AM

Thursday, December 5, 2013

12/5/13 - EOD Update

Earlier I posted and tweeted to watch for a possible triangle down here. I also mentioned that the longer the market sloshed around, the triangle becomes more likely.

I adjusted the purple count to reflect this option. Wave d certainly looks like the complex leg in the tri.

Now given all that, all three options still call for one more push up to re-challenge the 1795-1800 (red and green) level or a quick pop and reversal (purple). This obviously goes with the uncertainty with the NFP numbers for tomorrow.

If the market reacts positively to the news, I would expect wave iii green to tear on upwards.

However, in the past we have seen the market react one way momentarily only to reverse sharply the other way. Note that the red and purple option accounts for this behavior.

So we shall see tomorrow...

5 Min 

12/5/13 - AM Update

Possible triangle down here?
5 Min - 9:40 AM

5 Min update.

5 Min - 7:57 AM

Keep an eye on purple if the bulls don't step in.

5 Min - 7:45 AM

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

12/4/13 - EOD Update

Wild ride today. I added a few options, which are now highlighted on the chart; green, red and purple.

The bulls better show up because the bears have several things lining up for them. I pointed out the larger H/S pattern potential developing yesterday. I have since updated that on the chart below.

From a trading stand point, we have a range to work with between 1777 and 1800 so let's just all stay nimble and make some $$.

The green count, has the market making a comeback and shooting for new highs. One thing to note to counter the H/S is a potential descending triangle. We shall keep an eye and hence stay nimble.

For the red option, I didn't place a wave a for (2) but that may have completed into the close. If so, I expect a quick dip tomorrow AM for wave b before c launches to complete (2).

The purple option calls for a sell off at the get go tomorrow so we'll see if there is any merit to this count.
5 Min 

12/4/13 - AM Update

What a ride. Added the purple option, which for the bears is a nested 1-2 i-ii down. We'll see.

5 Min - 12:37 PM

For all you bears out there, esp those who thought they may have missed the boat, pay attention to the red count. You may get another chance.

5 Min - 11:12 AM

Start of iii of (iii) down?

5 Min - 10:26 AM

For those who required a visual aid.

1 Min - 9:35 AM

Rejected at 50% and 1800. I say bears have the advantage now. Looking to short near 1795ish. NOTE: This is not investment advice but just saying...

5 Min - 9:28 AM

1 min chart.

1 Min - 7:35 AM

Da bears finally got their five waves down. Let's see if a wave (ii) bounce is on it's way.

5 Min - 6:49 AM