Saturday, June 29, 2013

6/29/13

15 Min 
I like the green option at the moment, especially the green "or" wave labels.

I don't really like the start of the wave structure for blue and red if the bounce ended on 6/27.

** One thing I am eyeing is a leading expanding diagonal starting on 6/27 should the market drop early Mon and then rebound  without taking out the 6/27 high. That is all speculation at the moment so we'll wait and see on that one.

Weekly
 The weekly MACD confirmed the sell signal and also eyeing that H/S.

Daily
The market bounced at the lower BB just like the previous three times, however, this time the 20 day SMA was rejected. We'll see how this plays out coupled with the weekly MACD sell signal.

Friday, June 28, 2013

6/28/13 - AM Update

Purple option for that zigzag comment.


3 Min - 11:21 AM


In case you weren't seeing what I was tweeting.

3 Min - 9:20 AM


15 Min . Don't take your eye off the green count tho and the proper Fib retracement.

15 Min 


So far following the red count.

SPX  - 3 Min 

Thursday, June 27, 2013

6/27/13 - EOD Update

We'll see tomorrow.
3 Min 

6/27/13 - AM Update

Bear option in red.

3 Min - 11:33 AM



Been swamped at work. Haven't had a chance to count the squiggles but this may be a good stab at it. We'll see if the lower TL holds and if this continues to stair step higher.

20 day SMA still resistance.

SPX - 3 Min - 11:06 AM

Wednesday, June 26, 2013

6/26/13 - EOD Update

The bulls had some unfinished business.

I got rid of the gold triangle option. I still don't like the squiggle count too much but this is what I've come up with.

The market is at 50% retrace since the drop from 6/18. We should see shortly whether these are five waves completed for wave c of B or 1 of green.

The 20 day SMA at 1622 could be a bull target.
15 Min 

6/26/13 - AM Update

The bulls are trying to make a stand here and now one must keep an eye on the green option. The red and blue option are fairly similar but it will require a break of Monday's low. Otherwise, if the bulls defend that low on the pullback, we should probably expect another leg higher.


15 Min 

Tuesday, June 25, 2013

6/25/13 - EOD Update

Looks like that 60 min MACD buy signal along with the short term + divergence played out early on today. However, its not over for the bears and the bulls till have some more work cut out for them.

This AM I introduced the running flat scenario. I think this is a pretty good option. Wave c = 1.618*a.

I am also putting out this speculative triangle (gold) for wave B.

We shall see if the bulls have some more bounce in em.

15 Min 

60 Min 

Weekly

Looks like 1585 may be a critical level to hold this week. Note the potential hammer forming.







6/25/13 - AM Update

If bulls don't charge higher here, this running flat is a very strong possibility.

15 Min - 9:55 AM

Monday, June 24, 2013

6/24/13 - EOD Update

A little uncertain at the moment short term.

The bears continued the selling but the bulls tried to make a comeback today.

The counts have been adjusted and are now looking more bearish short term. The only caveat to that at the moment is the hrly MACD buy signal and shorter term + divergence. Per the 60 min chart below, [Y]=[W] so we'll have to keep an eye on the bounce should there be one tomorrow.

If there is no bounce, the bears may be launching a wave iii of C down or iii of 3 down tomorrow. Taken out today's low would be a good start.

15 Min 

60 Min

6/24/13 - AM Update

Just noticed a possible subdivision for wave {iii} and it would look like this.

1 Min - 7:36 AM


Looking for a potential falling wedge here on the 1 min

1 Min - 7:34 AM


Watching this potential H/S shoulders developing on the weekly.  Not sure if this will head to 1536 first or form the right shoulder around here with the wave ii bounce as highlighted on the 1 and 15 Min below.

The right shoulder may be capped by the previous all time high of 1576. That would also make for a 38% retracement for wave ii. A back test of the blue midchannel puts the market near 1614.

Weekly - 7:28 AM
Buy here for the wave ii bounce if the low holds.

1 Min - 7:22 AM


Looks like that bounce will not be coming and the green option has been eliminated. Red and blue remain and may be looking for something more bearish after a tiny wave ii bounce.


15 Min - 7:13 AM

Saturday, June 22, 2013

6/21/13 - EOD Update

15 Min 


Red, green and blue are all looking for a higher bounce next week. Green is the most bullish because it implies that the correction from the 5/22 high is over.

However, with the weekly MACD bear cross, red and blue are looking for some more downside after a bounce.

Friday, June 21, 2013

Thursday, June 20, 2013

6/20/13 - EOD Update

The bears won big for a second day in a row.  The 50 day SMA has been taken out along with the 1600 level in a very clear impulsive wave.

Intra-day, I adjusted the blue count and added a green count option that is still in play. I have also introduced a newer red count option.

Per the blue and green, a bounce could be in store for tomorrow. The Red option is looking for the same but it will be more shallow.


15 Min - Updated 3:16 PM


60 Min 
If the red option proves to be correct, the market may be heading to 1564 where [Y]=[W].

Weekly
The weekly MACD is looking set to cross down so if the 20 week SMA does not hold, the lower BB is showing 1488ish.



6/20/13 - AM Update

The bearish nested 1-2 i-ii played out as highlighted in the red option. It has now been incorporated into the blue count. The green option is still in play, however, there is no longer a double bottom scenario.

15 Min - 12:30 PM


Here is another chart I have been keeping an eye on and tracking. The 13 week EMA has been support for quite some time so certainly need to keep an eye on it. Note again the bearish MACD cross.


Weekly- 9:12 AM



Something to consider. I have added the green option that we should all be aware of especially if this correction since 5/22 results in a double bottom. Odds are stacked against it because of the bearish weekly MACD cross but the defense at 1600 shouldn't be ignored.

15 Min - 9:08 AM


Haven't posted my AAPL chart in a while. The triangle still looks good.


AAPL - Weekly

Here is the 60 min view highlighting the double zigzag.

60 Min - 7:58 AM


The bears chose to go the alt route mentioned last night with the gap and go down. However, looking at the squiggles once again, it is very possible wave i is wrapping up here at 1600. If not, wave {iii} of iii is wrapping up here at 1600.

I present the blue and red options below.
15 Min - 7:26 AM

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

6/19/13 - EOD Update

3:14 PM Update

Looks like ES sports a pretty clear ED.

ES



EOD Update


The bears won the day. I tweeted earlier that I wouldn't be surprised if the market flushed without the final fifth for the ED.

I also posted last night that with the wave {iv} overlap into {i} the old blue bull count option would become very suspect. The ED certainly played out and I believe sputtered for a truncated wave v of C to complete wave [X], which I have now adjusted the blue count to.

The bulls lost the 20 day SMA and now the weekly MACD is set to cross down.

Per the adjusted blue count below (which was previously the red count) wave i down of A of Y may have completed. I'm expecting a bounce for ii tomorrow and that may backtest the 20 day SMA at 1638.

The next best bear alt count is a nested 1-2 i-ii down and tomorrow opens gap down without any chance of a bounce. We'll see.



6/19/13 - AM Update

Put a bow on it.  watching 1620 below.

115 min - 12:01 PM


Wave iv of the ED is complete.

15 min - 11:14 AM


The market may be building a wave {b} triangle. We'll see.

3 Min - 8:25 AM


I previously tweeted five tiny waves up on the 1min  about 10 mins ago. However, after a small pullback, the mkt pushed once more higher before reversing, resulting in 7 waves up. Lets see if there will be another leg down to hit the lower trend line.

3 Min - 7:50 AM


There's the small dip as called in yesterday's EOD Update. Note the blue wave {iv} into {i} violation.

I mentioned yesterday that this would make the blue count suspect and that the ED would become more likely. Otherwise the bulls now have a quadruple nested 1-2 i-ii. That would mean a seriously 3 of 3 explosion that would extend for a bit. How likely will that be?


Lets see if there is one more little dip here to touch the lower red trend line. Doesn't have to though.


15 Min - 7:28 AM 

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

6/18/13 - EOD Update

Been keeping an eye on the weekly MACD. The last 4 crosses have resulted in some downside. There is a bear count option to support this as well. We shall see what tomorrow and the rest of this week brings.


Weekly



The bulls finally broke thru the 20 day SMA. Daily MACD is turning as well. I still feel that the bulls should accelerate higher if the blue count is to be proven correct.

If blue {iv} retraces into {i} tomorrow, red flags should go up because a quadruple nested 1-2 would be a little suspect.

I adjusted the red option to better reflect what is happening with the ED count. The bears have a triple -ve divergence on the 15 min so it is possible we see a dip early tomorrow to complete wave iv.

We should see resolution by tomorrow.


15 Min 

Daily

6/18/13 - AM Update

I adjusted the subwaves for the ED of C since the previous count had wave v larger then iii. So this could very well just be completing wave iii right now.

15 Min - 11:53 AM


Update 15 min view. The red triangle option is out. The next bear alternative is below. Wave C ending in an ED.

15 min - 10:08 AM


The blue and black option is setting up a triple nested 1-2 up, which would mean an explosion higher. Hmmm..
15 Min - 8:46 AM


The 3 min view.

3 Min - 8:14 AM


The red tri option is now an ascending tri unless wave A is taken out.

15 Min - 7:44 AM


The bears are about to lose the triangle option I have been presenting on the 15 min chart. Here is one more potential alternative to watch, otherwise, bulls may be set to launch here.
60 Min - 7:40 AM