Wednesday, July 31, 2013

7/31/13 - EOD Update

The market continues to chop as suspected. I'd still say its up in the air. Though the triangle and the chop may be the seem to be the most logical pattern, we must still be mindful of the blue option and a potential double top here.

Triangles do not always resolve as expected and today the daily MACD signal line crossed down.

The purple option provides other clues as to what else may be forming. A flat would be a good pattern to develop to fool the bears into thinking that the blue count is in full swing.

The way the market closed today makes me think we may see the flat or the beginnings of blue wave iii. Either way, the markets should open red in the AM if this is to be the case.

If not, and it bounces, we certainly can turn to the obvious, a triangle. We'll see.


60 Min 

7/31/13 - AM Update

The blue option is not out yet but all this chop as anticipated is indicating a flat or triangle in the works.

60 Min - 11:38 AM



Key time for the blue and purple options. Bears need to make a stand here with a double top or else green takes it higher.

10 Min 

7/30/13 - EOD Update

The market continues to chop around here.

The blue option is certainly in play and one of the better options at the moment.

However, purple is a very strong contender and I made a slight adjustment to this scenario. If we see some more chop tomorrow, it is quite possible wave b of a larger wave 4 flat is still in progress.

Note to much hope with green here short term, however, purple is the alternate for the green count.


60 Min 

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

7/30/13- AM Update

Watch the potential purple option with the wave b triangle potentially playing out before c attempts a new high or double tops.

10 Min - 12:16 PM


Watching the potential ED.

10 min- 9:34 AM



I updated my 5 min chart to a 10 min chart and changed the colored options so that they are consistent with my 60 min chart.

The bears may be setting up for a move here with the daily MACD set to cross. Lets see if a double top occurs here complete with an ED.

The bulls need to push this above the red line in an impulsive manner, otherwise, a potential ED may be in the works.
10 Min - 8:12 AM

Monday, July 29, 2013

7/29/13 - EOD Update

Watching the daily MACD. It is starting to show negative divergence so we need to be mindful of the blue option.

I added a purple option, which I sorta like better than the green.

Bottom line is if we continue to chop around up here, chances are we are still in a wave 4, otherwise, the blue option is looking for a flush down in the next day or two.


60 Min 

7/29/13 - AM Update

It is a battle between the blue and green option on the 60 min. Obviously these counts go in opposite directions. We'll give green some chance here but I have a feeling blue may be the winner.
60 Min  - 7:29 AM

Friday, July 26, 2013

7/26/13 - AM Update

Primary count right on track. Near the neckline now.

5 Min - 7:47 AM

Thursday, July 25, 2013

7/25/13 - EOD Update

Should be interesting tomorrow. A few short term options on the table.

Black is the primary at the moment. Five waves down off the 7/23 high with an abc bounce up to 62% retracment. If this is correct, I'd like to see some selling at the get go tomorrow or at least not too much higher.

Note the purple h/s played out and now the orange one poses a threat.

The blue option has the move off the 7/23 high as a double zigzag which completed today. The bulls stepped in an set up a potential nested 1-2 i-ii up. This option calls for a gap and go up tomorrow.

The red option is a little more bearish.

Hopefully everyone knows where all the invalidation levels are for each color option.


5 Min 

60 Min 

7/25/13 - AM Update

Nice. Looks like we got our wave iii put in. Now focus on the red line for the bears. They need to hold this to attempt to put in a larger five wave decline.

Also note a potential for a larger H/S (orange). They nailed the purple one so this is a first in a while.

** I didn't place it on the chart but if the bears really want it, there may also be a potential for a nested 1-2 i-ii down. Wave ii would be the right shoulder in orange. We'll see.

5 Min - 6:58 AM



Looks like the SPX is set to open lower, which most likely will put in wave {v} of iii. After that, we'll see if there can complete five waves down.


5 Min 

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

7/24/13 - EOD Update

The bears managed to close the market below the 5/22 high and appear to be forming three waves down at the moment off the 7/23 high.

I like the backtest and rejection of the ED as well. If the breakdown is legit, 1670 would be a good target, which is where the ED began on 7/16.

The 5 min chart highlights the level that must be defended if a larger degree wave is forming an impulse.

As of right now, there are a series of three waves, which would fit in with the green option. If the blue option is in play, the bears need to form a decent size five wave decline. Lets see if they can even form three first.

5 Min 

60 Min 

7/24/13 - AM Update

Let's see if iii or c hits 2.68*i or a.

5 Min - 11:34 AM



Had to adjust wave ii/b but it still works and so far iii/c=1.38*1/a. So we'll have to see what type of bounce comes from here.
5 Min - 7:36 AM

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

7/23/13 - EOD Update

We'll see.


5 Min 

60 Min 

7/23/13 - AM Update

Hit the ii or b target at the intersection. Can the bears pull off an H/S?


5 Min - 11:54 AM


So far possibly a small wave i or a down and now a possible ii or b bounce.
What will happen at the intersection and at 62% Fib retrace?

5 Min - 10:12 AM




Let's see if she's an ED.

5 Min - 6:33 AM

Monday, July 22, 2013

7/22/13- EOD Update

Keeping an eye on the wedge/ED. Short term (15min) negative divergence and all occurring just below the round 1700.

We'll see.
60 Min 

7/22/13 - AM Update

If the bears want more, they need to defend the lil red horizontal line. 


5 Min - 11:05 AM

Here is the ED I tweeted about earlier in red. So if the move is not already complete, perhaps one more push up.
60 Min - 10:52 AM

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

7/17/13 - PM Update

May just turn out to be a wave 4 triangle. We'll see.


Tuesday, July 16, 2013

7/16/13- EOD Update

It looks as tho the first leg down for 4 green completed. Lets see how high the bounce is before the next leg down.

A potential head and shoulders targets 1658ish. We'll see if the rising channel holds or undershoots it some towards the 38% retracement.

60 min 

7/16/13 - AM Update

Here's that h/s.

15 Min - 12:05 PM


Very possible wave 3 green is complete and 4 is now in progress. We'll have to keep an eye on the sub-waves and the wave 1 green high should the blue option be in play.

60 Min - 8:17 AM

Saturday, July 13, 2013

7/13/13-

Looks like wave 3 green is extending. Here are some Fib extension targets near the upper channel.

The blue option is still in play should the market double top but not sure how likely this will be.

60 Min 
The weekly sports a higher target near 1720 if the intersection of the upper channels is a target.

Weekly

Thursday, July 11, 2013

7/11/13 - EOD Update

The green option is the primary option. Looking for the completion of wave 3 if it didn't do so today.

The blue option has been adjusted as the alternate though I don't necessarily like the way it would be counted but we'll give it the benefit should a double top be on the horizon.


15 Min

60 Min 

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

7/10/13 - EOD Update

We'll see if wave 3 is complete or B (see 15 min chart).
5 Min 

15 Min 

7/10/13 -AM Update

Update

5 Mi n- 11:41 AM 


Watch for the blue option here as well. Could be forming a small triangle for wave [b] of {b}.


5 Min - 10:25 AM

5 Min - 9:52 AM

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

7/9/13 - EOD Update


7/9/13 - AM Update

5 min update.


5 Min - 7:51 AM


There's the move out of the triangle. Green looks good. Blue is on life support.

15 Min - 6:42 AM

Monday, July 8, 2013

7/8/13 - EOD Update

Wave {iv} triangle?
15 Min

7/8/13 - AM Update

Green jumped the downtrend line as mentioned in last Fri's EOD update.  Red is out. Watching {iv} green now to ensure there is no overlap with {i}.

15 Min -9:25 AM

Friday, July 5, 2013

7/5/13 - EOD Update

The bulls cleared the 50 day today and confirmed the daily MACD buy signal. The market just closed under the trend line connecting 5/22 and 6/19 highs.

Per the green option, the market is in a triple nested 1-2 up that should gap and go above the 5/22-6/19 trend line starting next week.

The blue option is somewhat similar, looking for a move higher but no higher than wave [X].  I don't really care for this so much and actually like the red option better as the 2nd alternative to the green option.

Red has wave b of a larger flat ending at the 5/22-6/19 trend line. Per this option, wave c of 2 starts early next week that either just back tests the 50 day SMA or all the way to the 20 day SMA.


15 Min 



Just using some intersecting trend lines here and a lil bigger picture, the 5/22-6/19 trend line may pose a challenge for the bulls.

Note the red expanding diagonal. This also plays with the large [W]-[X]-[Y] potential. So if the bulls don't gap and go next week, some things are lining up. 


Daily


7/5/13 - AM Update

A potential flat in red if the market pulls back from here.


15 min - 11:19 AM



Watch the new green squiggle.
15 Min - 7:20 AM