Friday, November 29, 2013

11/29/13 - EOD Update

The SPX reversed right where  (v)=.618*(i). We'll see if a right shoulder forms early next week on a bounce or if this was just another trap for the bears.

Have a great weekend.

5 Min 

11/29/13 - AM Update

Let's see if the bears can build on this.

5 Min - 9:48 AM



Possibly five tiny waves down after hitting the .618 extension ratio. We'll see.

5 Min - 8:00 AM



If this is truly wave (v). Here are some Fib extension targets relative to wave (i).

5 Min - 7:08 AM



That short trade didn't work out well prior to Thanksgiving. The tiny ED turned out to represent a wave x. Well see.
5 Min - 7:00 AM

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

11/27/13 - AM Update

Let's see if this short trade works. Stop is above the 1808 high.
1 Min - 10:55 AM

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

11/26/13 - EOD Update

Intraday I tweeted out the wedging and ED developing for wave (v) of 5.
That played out nicely.

Bears still have some work cut out for themselves but per my extension count (daily) below, bulls may have to pay a little more attention for the market's potential to correct a lil more then what they may be expecting.


5 Min - Zoomed


5 Min 



Daily

11/26/13 - AM Update

Good call Waveprinciple!

5 Min - 12:50 PM


A close up on the 5 min. Could be wrapping up here. Wave 5 of (v) appears to be an ED itself with the overall structure looking like a rising wedge.

5 Min 12:24 PM


Not quite an ED but certainly has a wedge pattern. It does appear that wave (v) is working it's way up.

5 Min - 11:05 AM

Monday, November 25, 2013

11/25/13 - EOD Update

5 Min 
 (v) of (5) of the 13th wave extension complete or very close?

Daily
 If the 5 min chart above has all five waves in, the 13 wave count on the daily above may be complete.

Daily
Triple -ve divergence.

11/25/13 - AM Update

so far looks like a flat for wave (iv).

5 Min - 12:28 PM


Just a lil over 1806. We'll see if (iii) is complete.

5 Min - 6:55 AM

Sunday, November 24, 2013

11/24/13

(iii)=(i) at 1806. We'll see.

5 Min 

Thursday, November 21, 2013

11/21/13 - EOD Update

Once again the market provided clues with the wedge pattern. This made for a nice long trade going into today.

I think I have a pretty good count on the 1 min squiggle. We must be mindful of the potential ED / wedge up top here.

This may provide another dip to buy for a trade should a right shoulder develop.

With the hourly MACD buy signal triggered, there is a decent possibility that a nested (1) - (2) , i -ii up was set up into the close. We'll see at the open tomorrow if this plays out.

I'll be looking for that right shoulder first should it come.

The bears do not have an impulsive wave count down so the best they have for now is a larger double zigzag down with today's bounce representing a larger x wave.

1 Min 

5 Min 

15 Min 

11/21/13 - AM Update

I believe this is a very legit squiggle count.

1 Min - 12:19 PM


Let's watch all of our wedges.

1 Min - 1200 PM


Keeping in mind this could just be a larger three wave structure A-B-C (in red).
1 Min - 10:59 AM







No triangle. Another buy the dip coming? Hourly MACD is about to cross up

15 Min - 10:06 AM


Triangle?
1 Min- 9:32 AM


Update

1 Min - 8:48 AM


The ED is out. Wave 5 of iii or c is extending.

1 Min - 7:47 AM


Updated 1min

1 min- 7:35 AM


Just wanted to get this 1 min chart out quickly.

1 min - 7:26 AM


Three waves up and just under the channel. Let's see if the bulls can make five. At this point the bears have a nested 1-2 i-ii down.

5 Min - 7:02 AM

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

11/20/13 - EOD Update

[Update 9:02 PM]

Here is another way to look at the count in light blue. There is room for c of y to head lower if the bounce at the end of the day is just a wave 4 of c.

Thank you to Marius and m for your comments.



5 Min - 9:02 PM



Earlier today I suggested that a w-x-y wave structure was playing out with wave x forming a triangle. On the flip side, a potential inv h/s was also something I was watching.

I also highlighted the time frame for the FOMC minutes, which the market reacted to on the money. Once the news was released, the market chose the w-x-y route.

As far as Fib extension ratios go, wave y is just a tad greater than wave w so it may technically be deemed complete.

I haven't had a chance to examine the subwaves for the ED below so we must also be cognizant of the more bearish count in purple.

If the w-x-y call is correct, the bulls should show up tomorrow. They better because, per the 15min chart below, the bulls have to make a stand not not lose the wave {i} high.


5 Min 

15 Min 

11/20/13 - AM Update

Haven't been able to examine the subwaves of the ED but it is out. We'll see.

5 Min - 12:41 PM


If the wedge (blue) holds. Wave y may be an ED.

5 Min - 12:05 PM


Sorry. This looks better for wave d.

5 Min - 9:56 AM


Let's see if this sloshes around until 11AM PT / 2PM ET (yellow vertical line).

5 Min - 9:38 AM


I think the w-x-y pattern may be more likely with wave x a triangle.

5 Min - 9:30 AM


Not completely sold on the inv h/s but must be aware of it. Will keep an eye.

5 Min - 9:28 AM


Prepare to accept the possibility that the red count is correct.

1 Min - 8:39 AM


The open. 3 = 1 at 1793.
1 Min - 6:35 AM


ES-mini bounced off the channel perfectly so far.

ES - 60 Min 

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

11/19/13 - EOD Update

We'll see if R.N.'s channeling technique properly identified the end of wave (4) at the typical 38% retracement level.
15 Min 


This is all I have for the short term. Let's see if the bulls defend the lower end of the channel. Or will the bears work on the red count on the 1 min chart below. Please see the note with regard to wave 1 red.

1 Min


5 Min 

11/19/13 - AM Update

No triangle. We'll see if this wants to tag 38% and the lower end of the channel.

5 Min - 10:53 AM


Possible wave (4) triangle? We'll see.

5 Min - 10:13 AM


I missed the subwaves for the 3rd wave of a of y. This looks better now. We'll see.
1 Min - 6:58 AM

Monday, November 18, 2013

11/18/13 - EOD Update

Earlier in the day I tweeted the potential for a triangle up top today and forgot to mention the potential flat. So far that looks like a great possibility as highlighted on the 1 min .


1 Min 
Hard to call the first leg off the top there as an impulse. It's a pretty clear looking three wave structure. Makes for a nice w-x-y corrective so far with wave y = 2x wave w.
15 Min

A possible wave {4} pullback. The question is what degree of wave (3).

Daily