Friday, February 28, 2014

2/28/14 - EOD Update

[8:58 PM] Just wanted to add the TNX chart.


[EOD Update] For a moment there I thought the bears were gonna steal the day from the bulls. Probably day traders shorting and covering before the close.

I'm posting a few more charts today because I'm still unsure where this is going.
I'm gonna give the bears a slight edge going into next week. Something about the late day reversal that may be telling along with a few other things below.

If the bears are showing up next week, then the 5 min chart above should have a wave iii down start early next week.

5 Min - bull
Based on today's reversal and if you believe in the bullish 5 min view, this count may make more sense if there is to be more buying next week.

The triangle pattern in this case may be a clue that the final thrust up today completed the leg up from the 2/5 low. I see a potential for a triple -ve divergence on the daily chart below and quite possibly 13 waves completed for the weekly below.



2/28/14 - AM Update

[11:35 AM] Something to think about

11:35 AM

[9:01 AM]

Five waves up but look at the tri thrust target at 1890

9:01 AM

[6:53 AM] A close up look of my triangle.

6:53 AM

Thursday, February 27, 2014

2/27/14 - EOD Update

The bulls attempted to charge out of the triangle. The bears are barely hanging on to their only count. We'll see how it resolves tomorrow.

2/27/14 -AM Update

[10:49 AM] There's the triangle break out. I wanted to add the red option since this is the bear's only option.

10:49 AM

[10:03 AM - TNX] Forgot to add the bear count in red.

10:03 AM - TNX

[9:59 AM - TNX] I haven't posted an update in a while. If the bond market knows something the equities doesn't.

Wave 4 has a likely target near the previous wave iv near 2.48.

9:59 AM - TNX

[9:51 AM]

Wave e in progress?

9:51 AM

[8:23 AM] The bears failed to make a newer low. As posted yesterday, some other patterns I'll be watching out for was another triangle. We'll here it is.

8:23 AM

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

2/26/14 - EOD Update

I made some adjustments during market hours and so far there is a good chance this is the path the market is taking (first 60 min chart below). At least that is what I will go with for now.

 I like the possibility of a wave c or iii lower towards the 1830-1820 level especially because there is still short term -ve divergence.

I will add that the churning up here leaves room for many other options so hard to say for sure what is really going on. Some other patterns I'll be looking for:

1.  A potential Ending Diagonal that is not yet complete
2.  Another version of a triangle up top here that needs more time to play out.

2/26/14 - AM Update

[11:23 AM] Here is the bigger picture. This is how the variant fits in. Would make for a nice wave ii retracement. Keep an eye on the red count too.

11:23 AM

[11:08 AM] This case is building. Let's watch.

11:08 AM

[10:06 AM] Here is that variant I tweeted about earlier. Something to watch since the market can't resolve higher and continues to churn.

10:06 AM

[7:39 AM]

No one caught the error in the red count? It's been removed.

[7:34 AM]

Yesterday I posted that the blue combo corrective would be something to keep an eye on and the fact that it needed some more work. This AM's whipsaw may have provided the additional sub waves required to complete the triangle for wave c.

I have a closeup of the triangle below.

7:34 AM

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

2/25/14 - EOD Update

Lots of "threes" ( three wave structures) up here. So hard to say at the moment what the market wants to do.

If I had to guess, I would give a slight edge to green ii or the red count option due to the -ve MACD divergence.

However, the bulls may have formed a combo corrective (wave c ending in a small triangle) to complete wave ii blue. The caveat to this is that the triangle for wave c is not quite mature yet.

Monday, February 24, 2014

2/24/14 - EOD Update

[3:55 PM Update]

Wanted to add a variation to the red count. Something more bearish.

3:55 PM

[EOD Update] The bears were squeezed past the all time high for the SPX. However, sellers stepped back in to close it below. The 15 min and 60 min charts are still slightly different.

The 15 min now has a clear level to watch to confirm whether this leg up is complete. A (iv) - (i) overlap will provide that indication.

The 60 min is still looking for a larger pullback before resuming higher. One thing to watch is the daily chart's count. Technically all 13 waves up may be deemed complete.

We'll see.

Friday, February 21, 2014

2/21/14 - EOD Update

The 15 min and 60 min show two different options. The 15 min has a more bullish slant.

The 60 min is bullish but not before a bigger pullback towards the 1805-1793 level. We'll see what happens next week.
15 Min 

60 Min 

Thursday, February 20, 2014

2/20/14 - AM Update

[7:18 AM] Beware bears. Bounce at 62% retracement after a five wave move up.

7:18 AM

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

2/19/14 - EOD Update

The bears showed up near 1850 today. The question is can they build on this and target the 50 day SMA (1815) below? This is pretty close to the H/S target as well.

Earlier I tweeted that the initial move off the day's high was a three wave structure. I still believe this is the case and hence I have marked the first decline as a wave 'w'. So if the bears are to push this lower,  a larger combo corrective must be a structure to look for.

1 Min 

15 Min 

60 Min 

2/19/14 - AM Update

[8:02 AM] We'll see if there is resistance here at 1850.

8:02 AM

8:02 AM

[7:24 AM] Not a triangle but a combo corrective/flat for wave iv. Now what do the bulls do near 1850?
7:24 AM

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

2/18/14 - EOD Update

Tracking that triangle. We must leave room for the possibility that it competed today with a truncated v. If not, the triangle thrust target is 1850.

1 Min 

15 Min 

2/18/14 - AM Update

 [11:37 AM]  If the triangle fails, the top of v of 1 could be considered at the day's high at 8:33 AM (PST).

[11:22 AM] Triangle?
1 Min - 11:22 AM

15 Min - 11:22 AM

Thursday, February 13, 2014

2/13/14 - EOD Update

The alternate count I presented intra day panned out as the market pulled back into the 50 day SMA and bounced hard from there.

We'll have to keep an eye on another alternative I did not post. It is very bullish and that would be the original count having wave 1 topped at yesterday's high and today's dip as a wave 2.

I still think there should be another test near the 50 or 20 day SMA but you know the market often times does not give you what you want.

15 Min 

60 Min 

2/13/14 - AM Update

Should this double top to complete wave (v)?, we should anticipate some patterns for wave 2. Either the blue or purple.

8:39 AM

Cleared the bull flag.

8:20 AM 

Would be nice to see it tag lower near 1805 -1800 though. We'll see.

7:00 AM

Hmm, watch the alternate count on the 15 min below.

6:54 AM

Looks like my gut was correct believing the triangle would fail. Now let's see where wave ii or b lands.
6:25 AM

Where will wave ii or b land?

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

2/12/14 - EOD Update

Update: One thing I forgot to add in regards to the triangle, I have a suspicion it may fail. Just a gut feeling.

Looks like a potential triangle was forming intra day. This may just be wave (iv) (15 min chart). Interesting that price is triangulating along the neckline of the inv H/S.

If it is a tri, I would expect one more little pop higher and then conclude wave i or a (per 60 min chart). There was a MACD sell signal today on the hourly, so we'll see.

15 Min 

60 Min