Thursday, May 29, 2014

5/29/14 - EOD Update

Ok. Looks like we finally got our move to the 1920 area and near the top of the trend line as I previously posted.

The question now is which count will be correct? I have three variations below.

Option 1a below has the ED continuing with the yellow count.

Option 1b has wave 5 blue working on it's ending. Wave 5 = 1 at 2086 and .618*1 at 2002.

Option 1a and b

Option 2
Option 2 has this bull run close to completion.

No one knows when this bull will end so I'd just keep an eye on the lower trend line of the ED. It is currently near the 1886 level.

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

5/27/14 - AM Update

[7:54 AM] - The bulls got their break out. Now we must pay attention to the ED scenario. Coming up to the upper blue trendline now. The upper yellow trendline is near 1920ish.

7:54 AM

Friday, May 23, 2014

5/23/14 - AM Update

[7:06 AM] - Will the bulls finally break this out?

7:04 AM

7:04 AM
Let's keep in the mind the yellow ED above. Either way, the direction is the same with the green triangle count. The 1920-1940 appears to be the target for both.

Thursday, May 22, 2014

5/22/14- AM Update

[11:45 AM] - So far the bulls are making the triangle a reality. The bears are nowhere to be found.

11:45 AM

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

5/21/14 - AM Update

[12:50 PM] - Still waiting for a final resolution. The bulls keep propping this up but I'd like to see it break out otherwise, I still think I'll lean towards the breakdown.

12:50 PM

[9:08 AM] - I believe we get our catalyst today with the FOMC minutes . We'll see what direction she takes. I'm leaning for a breakdown.

9:08 AM

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

5/20/14 - AM Update

[9:11 AM] - Lets see if the bears are working on wave c down.

9:11 AM

Monday, May 19, 2014

5/19/14 - EOD Update

Still no resolution yet.

60 Min 
Something about waves a and b red. Sure looks like three down (wave a) and three up (wave b). So it would make sense to see a wave c down.

 That green triangle is still intact.

This count works and the red option on the 60 min above could provide a clue. Replace wave a with a wave 1 leading diagonal.

Thursday, May 15, 2014

5/15/14 - EOD Update

Things should get interesting pretty soon here. The bulls and bears both have a strong case for their counts.

The bulls stepped in at the 50 day SMA again today. The bears have a MACD cross with -ve divergence so not sure how many more times the bulls can save the 50 day.

We should know soon enough who wins. Going to give a slight advantage to the bulls because I'm still looking for at least a bounce here at the 50 day.

The bears also printed a larger degree five waves down. So if we bounce, we'll watch for a corrective vs an impulsive structure.

Bull's Count


Bear's Count

5/15/14 - AM Update

[7:19 AM] - An isolated view of the triangle. Wave e has reached 38% of wave d. Daily MACD is bearish tho and continues to diverge so we'll see.

7:19 AM

[7:06 AM] - Its not over for the bulls yet but the bears are certainly making an effort to make a statement. The short term bull case is in jeopardy per the yellow count on the 5 min chart.

However, if we pan out to the daily, the green triangle I presented is still certainly a viable option for the bulls and something that would trap any bears looking to capitalize on the recent sell off.

7:06 AM

7:06 AM

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

5/14/14 - EOD Update

[9:39 PM] - Not sure about this count option but something to certainly be aware of if the bulls are taking a break. An ED within an ED. Not sure if this plays out but certainly a count to be aware of and we must be mindful of the ED trend lines.

9:39 PM
This is the main count I'm still watching though.

9:39 PM

[EOD Update]Yesterday into the close I was looking for the decline that occurred today. The market pulled back and back tested the trend line off the 4/4 high. I was looking for a wave {c but it appears that the bears pulled off five waves down.

The bullish case calls for a rally starting tomorrow but if you believe in bear scenario, a bounce should also be coming but more selling would follow.

We'll see if the bulls can tag 1920.

5 Min 

60 Min 

5/14/14 - AM Update

[8:30 AM] - Introducing the red count.

8:30 AM

[7:44 AM] - Lets see if wave {c is complete.

7:44 AM 

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

5/13/14 - EOD Update

The market cracked 1900 after completing what appears to be fives waves for wave -i of c of iii for the yellow ED I'm tracking. I'm looking for a wave {c of -ii down starting tomorrow, which may test 1888ish near the descending trend line (60 min). Ultimately looking for  wave iii of the ED to target the upper trend line near 1920.

What the bulls must be mindful of is a potential double top (4/4/14 and today).

5 Min 

60 Min 

5/13/14 - AM Update

[11:02 AM] - We'll see if the bears have one more lil leg down left in them to complete wave -ii

11:02 AM

Monday, May 12, 2014

5/12/14 - AM Update

[12:16 PM] - Just .4 shy of my 1897 target. We'll see if that is all she wrote for wave -i of c of iii of the ED (yellow daily chart).

12:16 PM 

[11:07 AM] - Looks like wave 1 of c of iii of the ED may be coming to and end. There is a tri up here. Thinking this targets 1897.

11:07 AM

[10:43 AM] - If wave d finds resistance at 1897, we'll look for a wave e target below.

10:43 AM

[TNX] - Lets see if TNX is hinting at the same thing.


[10:15 AM] - Something else to look out for is a larger ascending triangle.

I have it in green on the 1st daily chart below.

10:15 AM

10:15 AM

[6:44 AM] - There's our wave iii of c. Lets see if the market can finally break thru the upper purple trend line.

6:44 AM

Friday, May 9, 2014

5/9/14 - EOD Update

The daily chart (MACD) has me thinking this rising wedge may be coming to an end sometime next week. However, before that happens, I believe a wave c of iii is set to march higher first early next week based on the hourly chart.

Its probably good to respect all the wedging trend lines here. Should the market gap up higher starting next week, I will be watching the 1900-1920 (top of the wedge) level as a target.

Happy Mother's Day to all you moms!

60 Min 


Thursday, May 8, 2014

5/8/14 - AM Update

[12:24 PM] - There's the bounce as expected. Also added the option for a completed abc down for wave e.

12:24 PM

[12:18 PM] - Five waves down with an ED to complete it.

12:18 PM

[10:05 AM] - So far pausing right at the upper purple trendline of the potential triangle. Did that just complete wave d with e down to come or will it just base up here before punching higher?

10:05 AM

[8:12 AM] - So far s good for the inv H/S. Keeping an eye on the upper trendline of the purple triangle potential. The area coincides with the inv H/S target level I tweeted yesterday near 1892 so we'll see what happens there.

8:12 AM

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

5/7/14 - EOD Update

For a minute there today, I thought the red count option I posted yesterday was going to gain some steam. However, the bulls stepped in again at the 50 day SMA to save it.

There is not doubt the bulls and bears are battling it out up here and continue to chop this around. I revisited my daily count and still like the ending diagonal pattern that is playing out. I have adjusted my 60 min chart to reflect what I have at the daily level.

60 Min 
 I still have a few options here on the 60 min. I have listed them in order of preference.

1. The yellow option has wave iii of 5 playing out. Unknown yet if wave b of iii is done or will be a triangle itself.

2. The blue option has a nested 1-2 i-ii up coming off a running flat for wave 4.

3. The red option is still viable if there is more chop to be had.

4. Lastly, we must be prepared should the wedge collapse.


5/7/14 - AM Update

[10:37 AM] - Blue and green so far so good.

10:37 AM

[9:57 AM] - The three near term choices.

9:57 AM

[9:33 AM] - Bulls trying to form five waves up off today's low.

9:33 AM

Tuesday, May 6, 2014

5/6/14 - EOD Update

May have to keep an eye on the red count. I'm not sure if the ending diagonal (blue count) is still playing out since the market broke down through the wedge.

There is a case for a wave iv throw under but I'm not so sure. I think a lil edge goes to the red count. So far it looks pretty clear that there are three waves down for wave a (red) and three waves up for wave b (red).

We'll see if there are five waves down for wave c red.

60 Min 

5/6/14 - TNX Update

Since everyone is talking about the 10 year yield I better update my chart.

Coming up on the lower end of the channel. Two versions of the bull count are presented in blue and green.

The lower yield play is in red.


Monday, May 5, 2014

5/5/14 - EOD Update

Still too much chop for me. I have adjusted my yellow count (5min) from last week. 

The market is wedging at different degrees and given all the chop, this is something that I will favor until the market can break out of the two month range. 

5 Min 

60 Min 
Either wave v of (5) of 5 is completing or a larger wave b (red) of a wave 4 flat.