Wednesday, December 31, 2014

12/31/14 - EOD Update

Happy New Year to all! What a nice short trade to end the year!

12:54 PM - 5 Min 

12/31/14 - AM Update

10:44 AM - [c=[a at 2071. Some other extension targets with Fib confluence.

10:44 AM - 5 Min 

9:27 AM - Say hello to my lil wave [c.

9:27 AM - 5 Min 

9:13 AM - So far so good. We'll see if 2080 finally falls.

9:13 AM - 1 Min 

7:48 AM - Rising wedge look for wave [b. Lets see if wave [c down follows.

7:48 AM - 1 Min 

7:48 AM - 5 Min 

Tuesday, December 30, 2014

12/30/14 - EOD Update

9:13 PM Update - Forgot to add the H/S target.
9:13 PM - 5 Min

Short term the count played out nicely so far. Yesterday I tweeted the position.

However, I have mentioned that 2080 needs to be taken out first if there is gonna be a chance lower near the 2065-2050 region for this pullback of what would be wave ii.

So far looks like five waves down has completed for wave [a of ii. Did wave [b complete or will we see another little bounce back towards 2085 first before resuming lower?

And of course, until 2080 breaks, this could all just be another flat off the highs of an unidentified degree wave 4.
1 Min 

5 Min 

12/30/14 - AM Update

9:06 AM - Triangle for a possible wave {iv of [a of ii.

9:06 AM - 5 Min 

7:09 AM  - So far so good. Bears need to take out 2080 first tho.

7:09AM - 1 Min 

Monday, December 29, 2014

12/29/14 - EOD Update

Wedging or triangulating?

12/29/14 - AM Update

10:31 AM - Five waves down out of the rising wedge. Taking another shot at a short trade.

10:32 AM - 1 Min 

9:21 AM - No change. Just added some of the alt labels.

9:21 AM - 5 Min 

6:59 AM - The next best guess.

6:59 AM - 5 Min 

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

12/24/14 - EOD Update

2080 still providing support. We'll see if the bears can break thru, otherwise, this looks like more consolidation.

12/24/14 - AM Update

6:55 AM - Of course if a new high is made here, we are prepared to accept that it was a running flat for wave [iv.

6:55 AM - SPX - 5 Min 

6:47 AM - Haven't looked at the RUT in a while. Possibly a flat in the works if it double tops?

6:47 AM - RUT - Daily

6:45 AM - Backtest of the underside and at 78% retracement.

6:45 AM - 1 Min 

6:28 AM - We'll see if there is a mini counter-trend bounce.

6:28 AM - 1 Min 

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

12/23/14 - EOD Update

It doesn't mean anything unless the ED breaks down. Breaking below 2080 would be a start. We'll see. 

5 Min 

1 Min 

12/23/14 - AM Update

7:02 AM - Keepin an eye on the wedge there with the -ve divergence building.

7:02 AM - 5 Min 

6:23 AM - I've eliminated the bear count and reexamined the squiggles to factor in the extended wave [iii. The stop on the lil short I took on Fri will have to be reevaluated.

I wanted to capture a pullback for wave {ii so I'll see what happens after the open.

6:33 AM - Had the degrees off

Monday, December 22, 2014

12/22/14 - AM Update

10:52 AM - Slow day.

10:52 AM - 1 Min 

7:44 AM - We'll see if my baby shorts get a lil love.
7:44 AM - 1 Min 

6:08 AM - Looks like ES is building a triangle. Lets see if this is setting up for the last spurt higher for the leg off the 12/16 low.

6:08 AM - ES

Friday, December 19, 2014

12/19/14 - EOD Update

Lets see if the bulls take a break here. Added a lil short position to trade for a pullback. I'll stop out if it blast past 2080.

Of course I'll be looking to buy that wave {ii or -b.

12/19/14 - AM Update

12:53 PM - Finished? Taking a dip short for a pullback.

12:53 PM - 5 Min 

10:59 AM - On track.

10:59 AM - 5 Min 

6:50 AM - Let's see if [v of {i is completing.

6:50 AM - 5 Mn

Thursday, December 18, 2014

12/18/14 - EOD Update

Looks like the bulls are staging a run into year end here. Not counting the bears out yet but it certainly looks like a test of the ATH is in play. I will be looking to buy the dip for either wave {ii or -b on the 5 min chart.

5 Min 
On the daily chart below, I am still tracking this as a wave (4) in progress but will keep in mind that wave 5 may still be in progress.

12/18/14 - AM Update

11:00 AM - Five waves up.

11:00 AM - 5 Min 

7:17 AM - This bodes well for the bulls though.

7:17 AM - 60 Min 

6:57 AM - The pink count I posted yesterday was invalidated. However, I have adjusted all counts. The bulls are not out of the woods just yet. We'll see if the volatility continues.

6:57 AM - 5 Min 

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

12/17/14 - EOD Update

Not gonna swing to the bull case 100% just yet but playing the blue count was the way to play going into today.

We'll have to see if the bulls can build on this and break above 2034.17, which is the wave -i low, and up and out of the descending channel. This would eliminate the pink bear count and get this back over the h/s neckline (60 min).

12/17/14 - AM Update

7:48 AM - Some adjustments to the counts. We'll see.

7:48 AM - 5 Min 

Monday, December 15, 2014

12/15/14 - AM Update

11:19 AM - Forgot to update the red count, which is similar to the blue count.

11:19 AM 5 Min 

9:38 AM - Some things to consider if you are playing the blue count here. A double zigzag count may still be playing out. See the 60 min below.

9:38 AM - 5 Min 

9:38 AM - 60 Min 
The hourly shows some Fib confluence and a tag at the lower end of the channel. Let's see if the bulls can bounce back over the 50 DMA and out of the falling channel.

Friday, December 12, 2014

12/12/14 - EOD Update

The bears maintain the edge. Here are some additional bearish counts that I have added.

The market has made its way back to the 50 DMA. We'll see what the reaction is to this test next week.

The 200 DMA is 1945.

5 Min 


12/12/14 - AM Update

8:50 AM - If using the red option on this chart, wave -c may be complete and it = -a.

8:50 AM - 5 min

7:56 AM - The triangle option presented last night was invalidated with the day's low. The nested 1-2 down option is in play along with a running flat scenario (white) now in play as well. Keep an eye on the extension targets along with the  H/S targets.

7:56 AM - 5 Min 

7:56 AM - 60 Min 

Thursday, December 11, 2014

12/11/14 - EOD Update

On the 5 min chart below, I show a complete abc zigzag in blue. The next best option is a zigzag in progress but wave b is forming a triangle (red count).

The third option is a more bearish nested 1-2 i-ii down. I did not place those labels on the chart because I am too lazy. This option is ruled out if the red horizontal line is breached.

On the 60 min chart, there is a larger falling wedge developing and should that play out with a breakout higher, it will confirm that the blue zigzag is correct.

If the next best option is playing out, it would support the head and shoulders on the 60 min chart.

Until the bulls recover the 20 DMA or break thru the red horizontal line, I will give the advantage to the bears.

5 Min 

60 Min 

12/11/14 - AM Update

9:04 AM - Bulls forming that falling wedge. Not sure if there is another leg down required. Bears beware.

9:04 AM - 60 Min 

8:20 AM - Bears better defend the red line or their impulse dreams are done. Best case scenario if the line is broken would be a larger double zigzag down.

8:20 AM - 5 Min