Tuesday, September 30, 2014

9/30/14 - EOD Update

The market continues to leave us hanging.  Leading up to today, I had given the bulls a slight edge. As the waves continue to play out, I'd have to say it is about even now. I still have may long trade though unless 1964 is taken out.

The bears have several count options favoring another leg down.

Note the diamond bottom pattern I have added. I don't believe it is a strong one but something to note

9/30/14 - AM Update

[12:37 PM] - The upper trendline for the tri hits near 1983 to complete wave e. Granted wave e does not have to travel all the way to the top. The bulls need to blast past wave c to rule this tri out.

12:37 PM - 5 Min 

[11:32 AM] - Watch that triangle. The bulls need to step in.

11:32 AM - 5 Min 

[9:53 AM] - One more tweak for the squiggles.

9:53 AM - 5 Min 

[9:42 AM] - Still looks like a tug-of-war going on. Some adjustments as this plays out.

9:42 AM - 5 Min 

[7:48 AM] - Watching for the break out of the wedge.

7:48 AM - 60 Min 

[6:55 AM] - If the bulls do not step in, looking to exit long because of a new potential bearish count (in purple).

6:55 AM - 5 Min 

Monday, September 29, 2014

9/29/14 - EOD Update

Today, I stepped in with a long position to trade. The market has yet to reveal her hand though and a case can be made for either bull or bear.

However, I'm giving the bulls an edge here with the recapture of the 50 day SMA and I'm continuing to watch that falling wedge pattern (daily). This falling wedge fits in nicely with a wave iv of the ED.

Short term, the bulls have a nested [i -[ii -i -ii up. This should result in a break out over the descending trendline on the 5 min chart.

The bears still have their bearish count in red. They have the i-ii {i-{ii option with a running flat option for ii as well.

Lastly, the hourly sports an ominous H/S pattern, so a breakdown in the neckline would favor the bear's red count.

5 Min 

60 Min 


9/29/14 - AM Update

[11:34 AM] - Looks like a double zigzag for {ii. We'll see.

11:34 AM - 1 Min 

[9:56 AM] - So far so good.

9:56 Am - 1 Min 

[8:23 AM] - Ok. Squeezing in a quick squiggle count. Looking to enter a long trade should five waves complete with a decent wave {ii pullback.

8:23 AM - 1 Min 

Friday, September 26, 2014

9/26/14 - EOD Update

I did not take a short position today before the close. Rather, I am going to wait and see what happens early next week. If the bulls struggle to get it over 2k, I will take a position.

However, if the bulls can hold 1966, I will wait for a test of the 50 day SMA and enter a long trade.

The wave iv of my ED is looking pretty good here along with the falling wedge. The upper trendline is highlighted on the 5 min chart as well so we should keep an eye out for a break out there.

5 Min

60 Min 
 Still keeping an eye on this H/S too.

9/26/14 - Intraday

No time today so this is the only chart. Bears need to defend 2000. May take a short position here with a 2k stop.

Just remember, Wave iv of the ED I proposed could be complete.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

9/25/14 - EOD Update

Lots of options near term. I have presented many scenarios, which for the most part, makes it difficult to determine where they may be going near term.

The 5 min chart shows a more bearish view, that being a wave [iii of iii down coming up.

[1:45 PM] - Here is the full view of my daily chart showing all 13 waves for this extended structure.

1:45 PM - Daily

[EOD Update] -However, I still like my daily count. As I posted last Fri, I suspected that wave iii of the ED was complete. So far, this looks like a good wave iv down with a potential falling wedge look to it. 

If this is a wave iv, I'd like to see it find support near 1960 (green TL) or 1950 (purple TL)  if the market wants to take it down some more. 

5 Min 

60 Min 
 The hourly showing the close up for wave iv targeting 1960.

9/25/14 - AM Update

[12:26 PM] -  A repeat?
12:26 PM

[11:08 AM] - Too many options. But again, if the bears cannot flush this down, this could be another option favoring the bulls.

[9:52 AM] - If the market does not collapse, another way to look at this wave structure.

9:52 AM - 5 Min 

[9:25 AM] - Possible double bottom.
9:25 AM - 1 Min 

[8:11 AM] - Using the daily, I'll be watching the lower TL of that potential falling wedge too. So keep in mind, anymore selling could be limited if this is wrapping up wave iv of the ED.

8:11 - Daily

[8:07 AM] - If the market does not collapse in a iii of 3 event here, will wait for a bounce to wave ii to short.

8:07 AM - 5 Min 

9/25/15 - Pre Market Update

[6:15 AM] - E-mini clearly has four waves up so far. We'll see if five are made. If that happens, the pullback will be bought.

6:15 AM - 15 Min 

Wednesday, September 24, 2014

9/24/14 - EOD Update

Looks like the bulls showed up at the 50 day SMA and 1978 pivot low. As I posted earlier, looks like the market is still trading in the range I pointed out since 8/21.

There are several options on the table with lots of chop so as I posted a month ago, so long as this chops in the range, it favors the bulls.

5 Min 
From a near term perspective, five waves up and five waves down. Waiting to see if the 62 Fib retrace caps this bounce or if da bulls can put in another tiny five waves up here and punch through the 20 day SMA.

60 Min 
Not really buying the wave iis in green and yellow on the 60 min chart. Paying attention to the potential right shoulder here.

On the daily, a double bottom at the 50 day with a potential for a falling wedge pattern here may be setting up the next leg higher.

9/24/14 - AM Update

[12:13 PM] - So who do you believe? The bears or the bulls? Since 9/15 we now have five waves up and five waves down.

Earlier in the week I mentioned that a shorting op was coming up after the five wave move down completed. Is that time here yet? Of is a larger right shoulder needed first? Will the bears defend the 20 day or will the bulls retake it?

What I do know is that the market is still range bound  since 8/21.

12:13 PM - 5 Min 

[10:46 AM] - So far five waves up. The alternate being that wave {b completed since I think wave [iv may be a lil too disproportionate. We'll see.

10:46 AM - 1 min 

[9:17 AM] - Four waves up.

9"17 AM - 1 Min 

[9:03 AM] - A 1 min view. Looks like five waves up but is it a wave {c or {a?

9:03 AM - 1 min

[8:37 AM] - There's the bounce.

8:37 AM - 5 Min 

[8:01 AM] - We'll see if the bulls step in here. A good place to bounce here.

5 Min 

60 Min 

Tuesday, September 23, 2014

9/23/14 - EOD Update

[9:50 PM] - Here is a count that would explain the wedging pattern.

9:50 PM - 5 Min 

[EOD Update] - Today's late date sell off put a kink in my short term wave count. I can't make sense of the squiggles at this point. I thought an ED was wrapping up today but that changed late in the day.

My best guess below. The yellow option has this going down tomorrow.

5 Min 

9/23/14 - AM Update

[11:04 AM ]- The ED may be complete.

11:04 AM - 5 Min 

[10:05 AM] - Looking for a possible wedge here.

10:05 AM - 5 Min 

[7:11 AM] - This would be the bear's game plan.

7:11 AM - 1 Min 

[7:06 AM]  - Looks like the market had a lil unfinished business. Looks like we have five good waves down now. Lets see how high this puppy bounces.

7:06 AM - 5 Min 

Monday, September 22, 2014

9/22/14 - EOD Update

Looks like the bears put in five waves down with a potential for a triangle for wave iv still in progress and the bulls gave up the 20 day SMA.

Looking for a bounce here shortly.

9/22/14 - AM Update

[11:40 AM] - Five waves down for the bears. Will look to exit longs on the bounce and prepare for a nice short trade setting up.

11:40 AM - 5 Min 

[10:45 AM] - Expanding triangle for wave iv possibly.

10:45 AM

[9:36 AM] - If the bears are trying to make five waves down. 2006.59 is still the key level to hold.

9:36 AM - 5 Min 

[9;16 AM] - Hope someone made some money on my wave iii or c down. Lets see if iii or c is complete right at the night Fib confluence.

9;16 AM - 1 Min 

[7:45 AM] - We'll see if wave c wedges.

7:45 AM - 5 Min 

[7:34 AM] -  A lil bigger picture. Note the Fib confluence at 1995.

7:34 AM - 1 Min 

[7:30 AM] - Bulls are looking for a wedge for wave y.

7:30 AM  - 1 Min 

[7:27 AM] - Bears still in control. Most likely wave iii still in progress and most likely will extend 1.6 or 2.6 times.

7:27 AM  - 1 Min

[7:19 AM] - No longer looking good for the bulls.

7:19 AM - 1 Min 

[7:12 AM] - This would be the bull's game plan. After wave {i puts in five waves, buy at the wave {ii dip, stop with a closing below the 20 day sma.

7:12 AM - 1 Min 

[6:53 AM] - The 5 min view.

6:53 AM - 5 Min 

[6:48 AM] - So far wave iii or c = i or a. The bears need to make five waves down here or this is just a wave ii down on the 60 min chart.

6:48 AM - 1 Min 

6:48 AM - 60 Min